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The Flying Pig Fallacy, YC 2.27 02/27/2009 - 12:27 PM

Rafa by Pete Bodo

Well, it's been an eventful week - I never had the chance to resume the coaching series, but I will next week. Meanwhile, I've been doing a little navel-gazing and want to just ramble around a bit this morning.

One of the pleasures of writing a weblog like this is the instant, unlimited feedback you get from readers (tough as that can make life when you screw up or get someone's nose out of joint). As most of you aren't journalists, I'm not sure you can fully appreciate the novelty of all this for someone like me. For most of my adult life, the only out-of-profession response I could count on was the occasional Letters to the Editor submission that made its way to my desk or the Tennis letters department - usually, some weeks after whatever I wrote appeared. Unfortunately, the effort required to actually compose and send such a letter tended to limit the practice of this art form to really, really angry people. This is a whole new and far more vibrant, agreeable (usually) world. You can call me out now, quickly and immediately, but I also like that this street is policed both ways.

For example, yesterday, while reading the Comments on the Stages of Great post, I felt moved to call out a few readers on two different fronts having to do with Roger Federer's game, and efforts to analyze/rationalize some of his results. The first of these is what I would call the Statistical Fallacy, and it occurs when we forget that tennis is first and foremost a game of specific match-ups, and therefore each match comes with an entire palette of subtle technical/mental/emotional issues that help shape the outcome. That is, a player's conversion rate on break points, first-serve percentage, or winner-to-error ratio is shaped by the match-up to a degree that renders comparative statistics a highly dubious enterprise.

Here's a comparison. I imagine (and maybe one of you diligent souls will be moved to do the research on this) that even the best hitters in baseball have less than a hall-of-fame batting average against certain pitchers they face frequently enough for the statistics to be significant (I am not anti-statistic). The lifetime .300 hitter may bat just .125 against a certain pitcher, and while you can put that down to a technical failure to execute (the plane of his swing is too flat for the way this guy pitches; this particular pitcher's fastball is especially deadly against left-handers), but it's more accurate, and fair, to say:  "Pitcher-X has batter-X's number" than it is to say  "Batter-X is .300 hitter, so his failure to hit better than .125 against Pitcher-X is an anomaly."

Often, there's often a reason that execution goes awry. it's really all about the chemistry of the principals and their games, and the result of the mix is often unpredictable. The most realistic, accurate comment is: Holy Cow, Batter-X should thank God Pitcher -X isn't the only thrower in the game!

The other presumption can be called the Flying Pig Fallacy. I was accused of a worshiping at the "altar of Nadal" yesterday (where was Tigress when Nadal fans were skewering me for writing about Federer, rather than Nadal, the day after the Australian Open?) for suggesting that it's not really fair to claim that if Federer's service percentage had been somewhere in the X-per cent area, he would have won the match. This, of course, is the fountain of rationalization from which every KAD drinks copiously and greedily, and it's the same instinct that leads to someone to say: So-and-so should win because he has the best game.

What that really means is: So-and-so has the style that most appeals to me. And winning and losing at tennis isn't about style, or technique. You don't get docked for having a "boring" game, nor are you awarded style points for a pretty backhand. There's a difference between being the most powerful, the most skillful, the most artistic, the most versatile and. . . the best. And that difference is indisputable, at least on a match-by-match basis, because in tennis they keep score. It's about who wins two or three sets first, and that's really about who gets to the other guy's serve more effectively.

This, incidentally, is a two-part issue: how well you protect your own serve, and how well you attack the other guy's. To my mind, Nadal's ability to protect his serve is the least thoroughly explored "technical" issue in the rivalry, and it was an enormous component in the Australian Open final (as well as the underpinning of his repeated triumphs at Roland Garros). Federer's first-serve percentage as a stand-alone statistic, means absolutely nothing because holding is just half the battle - and here's a secret: it's the easier half.

                                                                  **********

One of the less obvious pleasures of being an Internet journalist is that reader reaction can take you on interesting journeys that have less to do with literary content than journeys into the more abstract realms of semantics, or logic. That is, if you care at all about what people say. And I do care - in direct proportion to the nature and tone of any given criticism or observation. Thus, given the controversy stirred by my use of a certain phrase in my Your Call post on the Swedish Davis Cup tie (I'm not going to repeat the offending words here), I found myself thinking quite a bit about word choice and usage the other afternoon.

So let me ask you this. Is it objectionable to write, Nobody does fashion as well as the French! Better yet, how about, Nobody does clay-court tennis like the Spanish. I think we'd all agree that these are not unacceptable or offensive generalizations; they're fact-based opinions that may or may not be true. I doubt that anyone would consider either of those phrases an example of "stereotyping" which suggests that we reserve the use of that word for observations that, for whatever reason, offend us. And the perceived offense easily overshadows and discredits the substance of the observation. Nobody has a problem with identifying the French with fashion, but what if I wrote, Nobody does chauvinism as well as the French. Wanna bet it triggers a host of protests?  So I'm not sure that "stereotyping" is really the issue here; the issue is real or imagined criticism - which may or may not be valid.

Further, what does Nobody does clay-court tennis as well as the Spanish really mean? It certainly doesn't mean that Italy, or France, has no good clay players; nor does it mean that every Spanish pro is a great clay-court player. And it doesn't mean that the Spanish are just clay-court players (I can think of at least one Spanish kid whose game on grass and hard is pretty darned good, too). It just means that Spain has produced more fine clay court players than any other nation, which to some degree is a matter of simple fact. I  think all generalizations of this kind ought to be run through the same logic mill. Maybe a "stereotype" is really just a generalization that we don't like or agree with, or which can't be backed up with a reasonable body of facts. In that case, there is reason to be offended.

                                                              *****************

I was lucky the other day, though, when an angel of mercy jumped in with the "B" word (Brad Pitt), suggesting that the movie star ought to play the lead role in a projected auto-biography of Roger Federer (or was it TMF himself who suggested that?).  Hollywood to the rescue! Soon everyone was talking about his and her favorite actor instead of global politics and things settled down.

Cosby And what would the appropriate Roger Federer movie be called? Maybe He's Just Not that Into Davis Cup? Rancho de Luxilon? How about Breakpoints Are Forever, with a theme song by Shirley Bassey, and a logo shaped like a Wilson tennis racket spelling out 014. Boo-yeah, old school! 

Hey, it's not so far-fetched, is it? There is something James Bond-esque about TMF, and it isn't the first name he shares with one of actors who has portrayed Ian Fleming's celebrated British spy. James Bond could be described as Roger Federer-plus, the plus being a better developed left arm, a lot more experience with semi-automatic handguns, a deeper knowledge of mixology, and a penchant for caddish behavior. But I have a funny feeling that Mirka would put the ki-bosh on that last item, pronto.

And here's something else, Roger is a very tradition-minded guy; who better to take the tennis-espionage tradition to the next level? Let's remember that Bill Cosby, while no longer so ubiquitous, got his start in television portraying co-star Robert Culp's tennis coach in the enormously popular series, I Spy.

Culp and Cosby were a pair of secret agents working under cover as "tennis bums" in the classic sense - they were footloose playboy/athletes, following the sun (and wealthy heiresses) while saving the world from all manner of villains. Culp was the player. Cosby the coach. Federer could do one of those roles nicely, although it would have to be the Cosby gig. Lord knows, Lee Strasberg himself probably couldn't teach TMF how to impersonate someone who's into being coached!. 

Good enough, it leaves the Robert Culp role as the player to - who else? - Marat Safin.

Chatter on! And have a good weekend, everyone.

PS - I've hi-jacked Jackie-Oh's Deuce Club for today, although I may have to post it fairly late tonight, from the farm.

- Pete


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Posted by 02/27/2009 at 01:50 PM

Saferu fans"

I like that, count me in :)
Well David now concentrate on Djokovic!

Posted by Rosangel 02/27/2009 at 01:50 PM

*the perceived offense easily overshadows and discredits the substance of the observation*

I was having some trouble with this myself yesterday on the "Stages of Great" - I think, on reflection, it was partly because I referred to Federer as "the man" rather than as "Roger", which phraseology distances him, and probably made what I was saying look unsympathetic to some sensitive souls - since the substance of what I was saying wasn't designed to offend, for sure. Interestingly, Tigress wasn't one of those sensitive souls.

I've lost count of the number of times I've been accused of accusing that man of something or other:)

I guess it's what you do with what you've got that counts - word choices mean a lot. I doubt that I would have referred to Rafael Nadal as "the man'. It's also pretty rare for me to refer to Roger Federer as "Roger".

Posted by BlueDog 02/27/2009 at 01:54 PM

Pete- I thought that Andrew made some very excellent and nuanced posts regarding what we can and can't glean from statistics. I agree with your points as you have framed them, but Andrew was comparing Nadal/Fed GD Final serving stats against each other. A very apples to apples comparison. He, and I thought, the majority of posters went out of their way to say this didn't mean the outcome would have been different, just that it was a curiosity.

As to stereotyping, the content makes a huge difference. If I say "You're the best at writing," you're likely to take it well; "You're the best at cheating," not so well; "Best at sneezing," neutral or confused. Many things are in the eye of the beholder, but didn't you suspect you'd strike a nerve with the "comment that shall not be named"?

Love the Bond/I Spy bit! I forgot that the Cosby character was a tennis coach.

Here are some casting ideas inspired by the discussion:

I thought Tarantino was a bad fit for Fed, but I do get the resemblance. It got me thinking of other bad fits.

"His Majesty's Lost His Service"

Directed by Scorsese:

Fed=Tarantino
Rafa=Micky Rourke (with his "Wrestler" look)
Davydenko=Ed Harris
Simon=Al Pacino (the eyes, when Gilles is angry)
Novak=John Tuturro
Brad Gilbert=Joe Pesci

Posted by Julie 02/27/2009 at 01:54 PM

Oh, damn. Ferrer/ Safin lost. I hope David will be OK tomorrow, or they might as well hand Novak the trophy now. Sherlock - true, but the ideal Bond would be a combination of Rafa and Roger's best points. Or they could just save time and ask Marat, heh heh. Seriously, I think Safin would look the part, but after a while he'd lose interest and ask why they were making him say these stupid things :) He'd enjoy the fast cars and womanising though, LOL.

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 01:56 PM

*thoughtful, in response to Sher's comment*

One of the things I happen to like about blogs is that the whole format of 'make post, get comments' works in a way that can challenge the authority of the blogger, particularly when a subject-specific blog moves out of the area of that specific knowledge.

I like this but I can see there are drawbacks; the 'anyone can comment' ethos means a very wide range of commenters, which can be good or bad; the ease with which comments can be made can result in a kind of 'piling-on' effect. There are others but those are the two I could think of quickly.

*darts back to shallow end*

Posted by 02/27/2009 at 01:57 PM

"His Majesty's Lost His Service"


Too funny!! LOL LOL

And you casting, excellent!!

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 01:58 PM

LOL Bluedog (@ His Majesty's Lost His Service casting choices) - I officially love you. :)

Posted by 02/27/2009 at 01:58 PM

*your casting*

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:00 PM

*"His Majesty's Lost His Service"*

This is up there with "Mine eyes have seen the glory of the cardiganned ex-lord"...awesome.


Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:02 PM

Bluedog - no, no, NO Tarantino/Fed. We've been there and SOME of use have have moved on. Same way others have moved on from Corey Haim as Rafa. And really, Micky rourke? Rafa would have to haved packed on about a hundred pudgy pounds and carry dead weights of dissolution for that to work.

I was poking around wiki looking for answers to wayland's question about people that Sampras/Laver etc just couldn't beat... esp. because I remember that Lave had a real bete noir but could remember who...and I didn't really find anything. But in reading the wiki entry on the Rocket, this quote really jumped out a me,

Posted by Sher 02/27/2009 at 02:04 PM

Rosangel, I think you're spot on in @ 1:50 PM

It's a little bit like the tone of voice during the conversation. One indicates warmth the other by contrast coolness, which sets up the rest of the interpretation.

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:04 PM

I had to look up Corey Haim. Nooooo!

Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 02:04 PM

OT - Go Camillo ;-)

Posted by neil in toronto 02/27/2009 at 02:05 PM

ROFL hatchetface Rourke as dear rafa?? only if Robin Williams is playing federer. I do love the choices Bludedog, but that would be one damn ugly movie :)

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:07 PM

oops - hit post too quick...here's the quote:

Rex Bellamy wrote, "The strength of that wrist and forearm gave him blazing power without loss of control, even when he was on the run and at full stretch. The combination of speed and strength, especially wrist strength, enabled him to hit ferocious winners when way out of court."

Now who does this sound like?

I also seem to recall that there was some player....not esp highly ranked...that used to give Sampras fits...but can't remember that either.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:07 PM

Sampras as a category had more difficulty with big servers: Krajicek, who leads the head-to-head 6-4, Stich, who leads the head-to-head 5-4, and he definitely feared Ivanisevic, even though H2H is more favorable.

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:07 PM

jewell - exactly. My point!!!

Posted by Emma (insertwittymantrahere) 02/27/2009 at 02:08 PM

"His Majesty's Lost His Service" - pure comedic gold.
I don't, however agree with Mickey Rourke as Rafa! As If!
how about Javier Bardem?
swoonworthy, mysterious and latino!

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:09 PM

was Wayne Ferreira a big server?

Posted by lira vega 02/27/2009 at 02:09 PM

Whoa, so Safin can not only impregnate girls via TV signal, but also make people care for dubs? Impressive Maratski, impressive.

Thumbs up for Nole for giving Jambon a taste of his own medicine and scoring his first top 10 win of the season. FHDTL (or any FH during large chunks of the match) nowhere to be seen, but djokohones and some nice thinking got him through. Jambon was not a happy bunny afterwards

A disappointed Simon believed that he had played badly and thrown away the many opportunities that he had to win the match.

"I was just playing bad, so that's why I finally lost this match", Simon complained. "Even when I had opportunities, I was not able to do anything with them. I had several chances to break him in the second set, and again in the third set, but finally every time I did a mistake, and not a good one. I just give him the point because I don't feel good and I'm not able to play a good shot at the right moment. I think I had enough chances to win this match, and finally I lost it, so that's why it is a very bad match."

Simon had lost the last match they had played in the semi-final of Shanghai by a similar score ($-6 6-3 7-5), but felt that that encounter was of a better quality.

"We played a far better match in Shanghai. But finally I had the same sensation at the end of the match. I lost a match that I can win, and I really don't like that because usually my strength is to win this kind of match. Its twice I have lost an important match against him with a chance to win. So, that's why I'm not happy."

I'll take it. Ajde, Nole!

Posted by NDMS 02/27/2009 at 02:09 PM

Hats off to BlueDog for that inspired title.

Who's tuning in to the Dullray matches just to hear the B2 guy drone on and on?

I can't believe I'm stooping to this shallow kick.

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:10 PM

"djokohones"

LOL! And thanks for the Simon quotes, lira.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:11 PM

I didn't see the match, but when Serena and Roger make that kind of statement, they're accused of being arrogant...will Simon be accused of the same? ;)


Posted by Emma (insertwittymantrahere) 02/27/2009 at 02:11 PM

Btw, should Tio Toni be making an appearence, Juande Ramos would be a good choice, for those of you who don't know who that is, here's the link: http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/11_01/ramosDM0411_468x664.jpg

uncanny!

Posted by Slice-n-Dice 02/27/2009 at 02:12 PM

Thanks, all. Yes, a pre-psycho Joaquin Phoenix, of course. LOL

Posted by Julie 02/27/2009 at 02:13 PM

Mickey Rourke as Rafa Nadal? Please, no. Send Josh Hartnett to the gym and then we'll talk :) Neil - this fan says "no" to Robin Williams as Federer, LOL. Maybe I should email RF. com and ask Roger to get his arms waxed :) Or is this your way of suggesting that RF's put on some weight?

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:13 PM

Joaquin Phoenix looks like the love child of Federer and Gilles Simon.

Posted by Arun 02/27/2009 at 02:13 PM

Lira Vega: Thanks for Simon's quotes.

Now, his quote reflect his disappointment. It's fair that he is disappointed coz he thinks he missed a lot of chances. The only difference is, when similar quotes comes out of a particular player's mouth he will always be blamed of not giving enough credit to his opponent and arrogance.

Posted by Arun 02/27/2009 at 02:14 PM

*reflects

Posted by 02/27/2009 at 02:14 PM

I so get the casting in the way those actors can capture the personalities (if not the physical aspect, obviously) :)

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:14 PM

crazyone - I was thinking the same thing. I read a bit of the match call and from what people were saying then, it does seems like Gilles' assessment was what a lot of Twibers were thinking as well.

Posted by neil in toronto 02/27/2009 at 02:14 PM

LOL Julie, neither really, i meant that i would accept Mickey Rourke as a Rafa fan, as soon as the RF fans would accept Robin Williams as Roger :)

Tho really he should probably manscape the forearm jungle just a wee.

Posted by 02/27/2009 at 02:15 PM

"so Safin can not only impregnate girls via TV signal"

he can do that? :-)))

Posted by TENNIS.com 02/27/2009 at 02:15 PM

"His Majesty's Lost His Service"*

This is up there with "Mine eyes have seen the glory of the cardiganned ex-lord"...awesome.


-------

My hats off too whoever thought those up, hilarious.

C-1: I would never, ever write off Roger being able to beat Rafa again. I would never under-estimate Roger that way, nor would I ever presume that Rafa is so much "better" that the case is closed. I try never to predict what will be (unless I'm in one of those weird moods, like with the US Fed Cup team a few weeks ago, when some gut-feeing demands expression)because I now how easily it can come, or go, for anyone at a certain level in the game. I prefer to focus on what was, and why it was.

And CL is absolutely right about getting thyself to a Wal-Mart; they even have a Roger Federer model Wilson, with his picture on a cardboard panel in the packaging (I'm not teasing, either; they do). Off the shelf, discount-store rackets are awfully darned good in this age of synthetic materials and nylon/polyester strings.

Posted by lira vega 02/27/2009 at 02:16 PM

That's why I posted it, crazyone and Arun :)
I don't get the impression those two are great buds off court, no love lost between the two, if you will. Makes it more intersting, IMO

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:17 PM

Slice-n-Dice: Spot on Joaquin Phoenix lol

Sher: Agree that there is more to Peter's article, such as the man's inability to ever admit he was wrong or to apologize; he just comes up with more syllogisms and sorry excuses.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:17 PM

Javier Bardem looks NOTHING like Rafa, IMO. He's such a stolid and manly looking man, while Rafa is wayyy more boyish and cheerfully energetic looking.


Posted by Emma (insertwittymantrahere) 02/27/2009 at 02:17 PM

Lol crazyone, he actually does! I've never noticed that, well spotted!

Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 02:17 PM

""an angel of mercy jumped in with the "B" word (Brad Pitt)""

Oui, c'est moi. You're welcome ;-).

Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 02:17 PM

"Seriously, I think Safin would look the part, but after a while he'd lose interest and ask why they were making him say these stupid things"

Julie, that was hilarious. :) I would pity the poor director who got stuck with Safin.

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:18 PM

"such as the man's inability to ever admit he was wrong or to apologize; he just comes up with more syllogisms and sorry excuses."

I do not think that is a fair comment.

Posted by Arun 02/27/2009 at 02:18 PM

"no love lost between the two"
LOL. I've totally forgotten the seriousness of that phrase after listening to Koenig and Goodall for a while (in a good way).

Posted by NDMS 02/27/2009 at 02:18 PM

I only caught the end of the Djokovic-Simon match on delayed TTC telecast (will review in full later). Djokovic kissed the court after the match like he felt a tremendous sense of relief there and I'm sure as always he wanted to be cuddly with the opponent but Simon really looked unwarmed at the handshake. I can't blame Simon there. He won the first set, he was up a break in the 3rd but got broken and he was 30-15 in that last game before he made the costly net errors to lose the match.

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:19 PM

C-1: Don't got to Walmart and shed, let's say $50-70 on a piece of junk, instead buy a demo from a tennis store (usually $90 strung, down from $170-200 + tax, new, unstrung).

Posted by Emma (insertwittymantrahere) 02/27/2009 at 02:19 PM

My 2:17 was about Joaquin Phoenix, I agree that Bardem and Rafa is a strech looks wise, but the whole broody/ridiculously hot accent thing would work well, no?

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:20 PM

Jewell: Can you prove otherwise lol?

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:20 PM

oh yes, Rafa would have to keep Rafanglish if he was James Bond... *loves*

hm, did that conversation move on while I was still stuck in my daydreams?

Posted by sokol 02/27/2009 at 02:20 PM

Marat better show up his "good" side at the DC tie. Even though he can loose to anyone on any given day, I hope he "shines" as he often does at the DC (I think Tarpi puts something in his drink :-), as Marat plays quiet good at DC )

Posted by lira vega 02/27/2009 at 02:20 PM

BTW, there was a press conference today about Serbia Open or Belgrade Open or whatever it's called and Steps is coming! Yay, a chance to see worm dance live! Others I'm not that crazy about, unfortunately. It's gonna be Verdasco, Ferrero, Ljubicic and Moya...meh, waiting to see full entry list soon, hopefully someone else interesting shows up.

Posted by harini 02/27/2009 at 02:22 PM

You know who reminds me of Rafa? The boy who played the main character's son in "All About My Mother." I think the character's name was Esteban. I think he had lighter hair but he seriously looked so much like Rafa to me.

"Whoa, so Safin can not only impregnate girls via TV signal, but also make people care for dubs? Impressive Maratski, impressive."

I burst out laughing and had to remind myself I was at work :D

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:23 PM

Pete - REALLY!? Thanks. Oh my. May have to go buy a FederWal racket. Just hope Fed doesn't get in as much trouble as Springsteen for the connection.

lira vega - huh..that's an interesting theory about Gilles et Novak. Funny... I can't see either of them as being especially 'edgy' toward another player.

Posted by sokol 02/27/2009 at 02:23 PM

"Whoa, so Safin can not only impregnate girls via TV signal, but also make people care for dubs? Impressive Maratski, impressive."

"I burst out laughing and had to remind myself I was at work :D"

same reaction here :-)) LOL

Posted by white line fever 02/27/2009 at 02:23 PM

So, for those who were wondering (aka no one), my eyelids lost their epic battle against gravity and I fell asleep for 4 hours!

Weighing in on what I missed:

Sorry to all the Nosaferratu fans that the Frankenstein headcase monster no longer lives to terrorize the doubles draw.

It looks like I missed a highly missable match between Reeshee and Daveeed. For those who saw it, which is more true: a) Reeshee headcased the match away or b) Daveeed 2007ed his way with excellent play.

And yes, NDMS, I suffered through a bit of B2 Delray action when I woke up, and Rochus defeated Koubek in the battle of older shorter lesser-ranked Central Europeans. Christophe's got bragging rights, yo!

Finally, everyone knows that Dexter > American Psycho. Or even Welsh Psycho, for that matter.

Anyone gonna watch the Baghdatis/Chardy duel?

Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 02:23 PM

"""
To my mind, Nadal's ability to protect his serve is the least thoroughly explored "technical" issue in the rivalry, and it was an enormous component in the Australian Open final (as well as the underpinning of his repeated triumphs at Roland Garros).
"""

Yep, this is true. I have it boiled down to two reasons (in chronological order):

a) Improved ability to handle the short slice - In the Wimby '06 F, Rog killed him with short slice returns. He was not able to do that ever again!

b) Improved first serve - Not really much to say about it there. But you hit a decent 1st set to a 1hbh and take away the slice fro Fed...you've got Blake.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:23 PM

Pete: thanks for the response. The "mine eyes have seen the glory of the cardiganned ex-lord" came from MrsSanta's writeup on her visit to Wimbledon.

As for the Walmart bit, it's good advice, but I still wanted to know *which* racquet would be best for me, since I want something lightweight and suitable for beginners (which Roger's racquet would not be)...Pspace suggested a lightweight racquet that was about $60.00 online--is Walmart really that more cheap?

Just looked online...the racquets at Walmart either are in the 60-80 range or in the 15-20 range...which seems almost too cheap to me? And unfortunately, I don't live near any Walmarts, living near Red Square and all ;)

Posted by Charles 02/27/2009 at 02:24 PM

Excellent observations, Pete!
You make very valid points about the fallacies of statistical comparison. Equally, I believe, the notion of comparing players from different areas is entirely speculative - which I think you implied with your trenchant observations. You're bang on in saying that "tennis is first and foremost a game of specific match-ups". It is entirely useless to speculate about how Nadal would have faired against Borg or how Federer would stack up against Laver - even discounting the differences in training, equipment, and mindset between the different generations. There's just no way to know what Federer would do with Laver's volleys or how Borg would handle Nadal's lefty topspin - unless they actually had the chance to play each other in their primes - which of course can't happen.

Thanks for the great insights, keep it up!

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:26 PM

oh well, off to cook and stuff.

See you all later or tomorrow. :)

Good luck, Bambi.

Posted by sokol 02/27/2009 at 02:27 PM

white line fever,

Ferrer played really well

Posted by BlueDog 02/27/2009 at 02:27 PM

Thanks everybody!

I agree it would be one very ugly movie. Please note it was intended as a list of bad (bizarro) casting choices. Of course Rafa deserves better than Mickey, but you just have to visualize him across the net from Tarantino. Just for comic purposes.

Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 02:27 PM

"and Rochus defeated Koubek in the battle of older shorter lesser-ranked Central Europeans. Christophe's got bragging rights, yo!"

LOL, WLF! I can hear the promo now. :)

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:28 PM

I don't think Marat will be able to continue impregnating girls via the tv much longer. The switch to digital means fewer and fewer cathode ray tubes and we all know that they are the turkey basters of inter-tele impregnation. As for dubs...too soon to tell.

(Mrs. Santa - was that you?)

Posted by jewell - Make tea, not war. 02/27/2009 at 02:28 PM

aargh, forgot to say a quick thank you to Master Ace for schedule-posting. :)

*waves thank you, departs*

Posted by Slice-n-Dice 02/27/2009 at 02:29 PM

I believe crazyone's assessment that Joaquin Phoenix looks like the love-child of Roger and Gilles is funny as hail. The eyes and little snarl -- definitely Gilles. The hair, the jawline, the slightly scrunched up features -- Roger all the way.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:30 PM

no offense to those who are fans of the players left in the Delray Beach draw, but that is such a blahhhh draw. Florent Serra is probably going to win the whole thing.


Posted by NDMS 02/27/2009 at 02:30 PM

white line fever,

I'm staying for the Marcos-Jeremy match. I like both players but the B2 guy just cracks me up with his non-commentary.

Did you catch the mistake they posted on the screen?

Next: Marcos Baghdatis & Dudi Sela vs Andrey Golubev & Jeremy Chardy.

It's like they're announcing a doubles match.

Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 02:31 PM

c1, If you're a beginner (and don't have prior experience with racquet sports), the racquet doesn't really matter that much. Just make sure that it's light (weight below 10 ounces, and swingweight close to 300). Use this to judge your level of play after 6 months to a year:

http://www.usta.com/?sc_itemid={A9EAE203-D273-4CB1-9038-5A293C5ED642}

Once you hit about 3.5, you might want an upgrade. If you play 2-3 times a week, it's reasonable to expect to get to 2.5 in 1-1.5 years.

Posted by Jenni 02/27/2009 at 02:31 PM

"Rafa deserves better than Mickey"

Blasphemy. Rafa should be so lucky.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:31 PM

well, Slice-n-Dice, I can't really take credit for it...C Note and others have pointed out the similarity of Gilles to Phoenix, and you pointed out the similarity of Phoenix to Roger, so I just put the two together.

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:32 PM

Crazyone at 2:23: I've anticipated some of your questions in my 2:19 PM post, if you care to scroll up.

Pspace: Lol and yeah.

Posted by 02/27/2009 at 02:32 PM

Baghdatis' match is next. I like to watch him, he's quiet entertaining, most of those Delray matches were so boring, hope that Baggy match would be fun to watch (that is if I can find a link)

Posted by C Note 02/27/2009 at 02:33 PM

C1 -- Have you considered demoing racquets via Tennis Warehouse or some other online shop? All you do is pay for shipping (about 12 bucks), you can have 3 racquets at a time, and you have 1 week to return them (though I've emailed them before when I thought I'd be late and they waived any late fees). That's how I was able to settle on my racquet, and it was great because the racquet I settled on is one that wasn't even on my radar screen.

Also would second the idea of buying a used demo. I got my first racquet a few years ago at Lombardi's in the City for $90 and it was a $200+ racquet. I used it for about 3 months before I completely outgrew it and moved up to the performance frames.

Posted by sblily (Gil Reyes KAD) 02/27/2009 at 02:33 PM

Emma - good call on Juande/Tio Toni.

avid - How is Camilo doing?

So much comedy gold on this thread. *loves TW*

Posted by NDMS 02/27/2009 at 02:34 PM

white line fever at 2:23pm,

"and Rochus defeated Koubek in the battle of older shorter lesser-ranked Central Europeans. Christophe's got bragging rights, yo!"

Wicked and funny!

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:34 PM

Pspace, thanks. It was really info about the weight and swingweight that I wanted.

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:34 PM

BlueDog - mmm..ok..I'm visualizing *****{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{*********

Nope ...still not working for me. Much rather visualize George Clooney across the net from Antonio Bandares (sic??)

Posted by sokol 02/27/2009 at 02:35 PM

"Rochus defeated Koubek in the battle of older shorter lesser-ranked Central Europeans"

LOL

Posted by TENNIS.com 02/27/2009 at 02:36 PM

You know, C-1, I'm not sure equipment matters AT ALL for the entry level, and think you can probably find something decent at a garage sale. Better yet, find someone who plays a lot and has some old but still large-headed racket lying around that he or she doesn't use any more. Play with this for a few weeks/months and then if you decide you want to put a little effort and time into getting decent at the game, we can revisit the issue with loads of help from our stable of experts here (TW). Like most everything else, part of the fun and excitement for most of us typical consumers (even those who live near Red Square, but that's another issue!) is choosing and buying the gear.

Posted by Jackie (SMILE!) 02/27/2009 at 02:36 PM

Amen, Jenni. :)

And what's this? Mixing my two faves gives me ... Joaquin Phoenix?!

Wrong. All wrong. ;)

Posted by white line fever 02/27/2009 at 02:36 PM

NDMS - yeah, I did catch that little bit of graphics magic. Silly B2 - as inept visually as they are aurally. I thought everyone would know that, while Dubai is Duty Free, Delray is now Dudi free.

Posted by lira vega 02/27/2009 at 02:37 PM

CL,
I don't think they hate each other or anything, but for example Simon was laughing today at Novak for asking for one point to be replayed after bad call, complaining about Novak's toilet break and also time he takes between serves in one of their previous matches and speaking the same language as Nole, I can tell you he doesn't think highly of Simon's tennis. Maybe it's not much, but in these times filled with bromances, these crumbs are all we have...

Posted by Rosangel 02/27/2009 at 02:37 PM

Sher:
There are some people who might think, as I'm well aware of the difference in distance with which I discuss Nadal and Federer in the comments (I always try to remain as neutral as is practical in headline posts, whoever is being discussed - obviously, depending on the subject-matter, that isn't always 100% possible), that I might do better to rethink my phrasing - but what is a person to do in this situation? Remain genuine, or become anodyne and also dishonest in the process? As I'm not a journalist, I consciously chose the former course as far as expressing preferences for one player over another is concerned, but it seems that for some people, that also makes me automatically critical of certain subjects - as though I'm incapable of engaging objectively when it comes to facts or opinions on matters that have nothing to do with whether I prefer one player or another. A suggestion of ulterior motives, in other words.

Yet two of the best-received blogs I've written were those following last year's Roland Garros and Wimbledon finals, and not just by fans of one player. You can't write some of that intensely emotional stuff without feeling involved, and being honest about how you feel about the experience. I recall thinking that it was a big responsibility for a known partisan to be writing for TW on those days, particularly after Wimbledon, and without Pete's editing, because I think he was in transit back to New York both times.

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:37 PM

C Note: That's the way to go, imo; besides here, we can just drive to many tennis stores and get demos for free, most of the time.

Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 02:38 PM

OT sblily - He was one up after the first hole but just bogeyed to par 3 3rd and so he's all square with Geoff Ogivly (for some reason I don't like this guy ;-) now.

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:38 PM

Marian and C Note: I'm really starting from the beginning here, so I don't know that demo-ing would work out well for me right now, because...yeah, it would be hard to tell if it were the racquet and not my complete lack of technique that was the problem. I'm planning to start beginner's lessons in a few weeks, though I took about 5 weeks of lessons a few years ago (which is part of the reason I know I need a very lightweight racquet, at least until I develop my arm muscles more). But I still may go to a tennis shop and see what they recommend and try something out.


Posted by Return the Jets 02/27/2009 at 02:38 PM

Sometimes Pete overwrites himself into non-sense.

It's objectively true that Federer served horribly in the AO. Federer V Nadal has never been one about a bad serve/return match up like you describe, Pete, so the bad first-serve percentage was something that anybody who knows anything about their rivalry would remark about. You can fluff up all sorts of metaphors and analogies you want but there's no obscuring that the stat was important.

Also, one of your other points is moot. Sure we all have our biases, but do you really just expect this forum to be a list of "thumbs up" "thumbs down" for the players they like/prefer to watch? That would make for pretty boring reading. If sometimes writers on forum over-elaborate with their impressions -- with good stuff like facts, stats to back them up -- then they've taken a cue from the column writer.

Thumbs up Federer.
Thumbs down Nadal.

Posted by C Note 02/27/2009 at 02:38 PM

Following up on Pspace's point, if you're picking up a racquet and have never played before, but would consider yourself a natural athlete (i.e., you've played sports in highschool or college), then expect your learning curve to accelerate dramatically. The person who evaluated me at my club for my USTA rating said that she's seen natural athletes who are complete novices at tennis go from a 1.0-3.0 in 3-6 months.

Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 02:41 PM

golf OT - and now they are comparing Camillo to Rafa as he just lost the second consecutive and has gown 1 down for the first time in the tournament.

Posted by BlueDog 02/27/2009 at 02:41 PM

But CL, that wouldn't be funny!

Jenni, no offense to Mickey as an acting talent.

Posted by Sher 02/27/2009 at 02:42 PM

Marian @ 2:17pm

You will agree: there is what I said and then there is what you said, and one is not like the other.

Posted by Sandra 02/27/2009 at 02:43 PM

Julie, I totally co-sign with Josh Hartnett as Rafa! Other Rafa fans have commented before on the physical resemblance. Two hunks - I'd pay to see either on screen.

Posted by CL 02/27/2009 at 02:44 PM

C-note. That would be something like asking an Air Guitar player to test a Gibson. I get to play SO infrequently that the extra money is just not worth it. If and when I get to play more and am maybe take some real lessons, I would consider upgrading. But thanks for the thought.

Crazyone - I am currently using something called a Wilson Fusion Double Beam (at least I think it says 'beam' ...can't really read the graphic. ) Anyway, it is REALLY light. I can't remember if I got it at a Walmart type store or off the rack at a tennis/golf store that was having a going out of business sale. ( I am WICKED cheap.) But it is a step up from my old Prince Thunderstick, ( I kid you not), that I got at a garage sale.

Posted by NDMS 02/27/2009 at 02:44 PM

B2 guy just said: They're both right-handed.

Wow!

Posted by crazyone 02/27/2009 at 02:44 PM

C Note: thanks, but that would er...so not be me.

Thanks, Pete. I think my best option is still to go and buy a cheap lightweight racquet from somewhere (unless I know a girl with her first lightweight tennis racquet lying around, I'm not sure I do), since my main difficulty from before was not being able to follow through on my FHs due to floppy wrist/lack of arm strength and having the ball land into the net. In my previous class we didn't have to buy racquets and so it turned out that using a super racquet helped me hit better FHs somewhat even though the head was a bit smaller than the one I was originally trying to hit with.

Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 02:45 PM

C-1, building on what C Note says: it's not unusual to demo (mostly for free) rackets for a few weeks; meanwhile you can even borrow one from a friend like Peter is saying ( I also do give away rackets to friends that seemed handicaped by the equipement)... After a month of so or hitting your technique will come back or at least you'd have a better idea about rackets.

I think I've demoed over 30 last year and ended up buying 2, but that was in my second year of playing more intensively; two years ago though, when I was more or less like you, I had bought one (withoud demoing too many) from a tennis store "that allowed me to work with it" - and that's the kind of advanced advise you'll get in a store, if they question you about your play etc.


Good luck!

Posted by lira vega 02/27/2009 at 02:45 PM

*joins avid and jewell in appreciating the Bethanie Mattek post*

also Sesil Karatancheva and Hyung-Taik Lee and other "lesser players" posts.

Posted by Jenni 02/27/2009 at 02:45 PM

Understood, Blue Dog. Jackie and I have been (hypersensitively)railing for days about how poor Mickey got screwed over by the Academy, so it only seemed appropriate that I comment. :)

Posted by C Note 02/27/2009 at 02:46 PM

C1 -- Pete's totally right too. I started playing with a racquet that I got for 5 bucks at the local Goodwill. Granted, it was an old 90s Prince CTS Synergy, but still.

I think all the info that Pspace, Marian, and I are schilling come from the perspective of (I'm assuming) complete equipment geeks. I'm definitely one of them, right down to play testing shoes (and seriously, I'm NOT that good).

You can't go wrong with anything that you're doing except if you spend $150+ for your first racquet, only to find that it's too advanced for you and actually discourages you from playing. That would be worst case scenario. But $50-$80 for a beginner's racquet (that's slightly head heavy to give you some natural power, which will give you confidence and encouragement) will do the trick.

I wish I still had my Prince O3 Silver. I would have just given it to you. It was a really good beginner's racquet for me.

Posted by Amit 02/27/2009 at 02:47 PM

Charles/Pete,

One needs to separate meaningful statistical analysis from just spitting out numbers. Not all correlations are meaningful, but statistics can provide insights if done correctly and with the limitations in mind. Andrew alluded to it earlier.

Matchups often determine tennis matches, agreed. But if we take the Nadal-Fed rivalry (nearly 20 matches) and tabulate the various serve placement positions of both players and how the other player reacted to it (now we're talking 1000s of data points), we can indeed make reasonable statements, if we so choose.

Posted by white line fever 02/27/2009 at 02:47 PM

Chardy cashes in on his third break point.

NDMS - Who is this "Yoko Vick" he keeps talking about? And I can't wait to see Evegknee Korolev play later tonight.

Also mentioned: Raydack Stepanack and Igor Andreeeve

Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 02:48 PM

c1, You're going to be the funniest beginner that any coach has ever handled. Jaja...makes me tickled. He'll prolly have nothing to tell you that you don't already know...just tell him to shut up and feed the balls ;-).

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