FIRST!

Nice post Pete.

Today was actually much worse condition (windy) than yesterday. If Nadal were to face Federer in today's condition, I still think he will win.

Djokovic is a damn good player. If you go through the scorelines of the last three Fed-Djokovic matches here at the U.S. Open, you'll see that it often takes 7 games to win a set when those two men play at Ashe Stadium. Many of their sets are coin-flips.

No one should be counting any chickens. None.

No speaking about the final unless or until it happens.

go nole!!!

Nice post Pete! I liked the train analogy of Nadal. I think we can pencil Nadal into the final pretty safely. Mr. Fed on the other hand has Mr. Djokovic who looks in great form. The key to the final will be how the winner of Fed vs Nole comes through that match.

Enjoyed the post very much, Pete. :)

"dream final." LOL - at the moment it seems like the media are much keener on this than many fans. :)

Pete Thanks a good post.

As I say

We Gonna See No?

i am loving pete's love for fed and rafa... understandable.. two greats playing in the same era, tourney.. that must be great...

hoping for a nole-rafa final though... with nole coming on top!!!... nole's overdue for a second slam...

keep the fight nole!!!

Two more matches left. I wonder who wants this "dream final" more, Nadal or Federer?

Fun post. Yea, I think they are both playing at a really high level, both having fun doing so, and having a bit of fun knowing that the other one is at the hotel watching them kicking butt. Both guys look fierce right now.

I thought that Nando mentally checked out of the match at the end of the second set. He was visibly and audibly frustrated and the more frustrated he got the more winners went ripping by him. He seemed too beat to contemplate the gargantuan task of trying to mount a comeback against Rafa. Probably understandable. It would have taken the match of his life to win even before going down 2 sets.

I don't agree that Rafa is "les self-assured" than Federer. I just think it is what Johnny Mac referenced tonight - he does not take anything for granted. I think he is very self assured. He seems to know exactly who he is, what he wants, and what he needs to do to get it.

Nadal! Nadal! Nadal! His tennis is now breathtaking!

"One comes by sea, the other by land, and nobody lives to tell the tale."...

Wonderful line & analogy. Not a great fan of your tennis analysis, but you sure can write em, Pete.

Re the dream final, if it were to come to pass, as always Nadal has nothing to lose, and Fed has all to lose. If Nadal loses, hey he got further than he ever has, and its no shame to lose to the Fed in his house. And if Nadal wins, boy, he'd have the Career Slam and wins over the consensus GOAT at all 4 Slam finals - something the Rafa KADs will never let us forget!!

On the other hand, Fed's got to be thinking - what more do I have to do? Beat a guy with a match up advantage, 5 yrs younger and in his prime, when I'm on the tail end of my career? Just to prove (once again) that I'm the man? But maybe he doesn't think this way - that's why he's TMF. He's gone on record saying he wants 4 more...

Nothing seems to change this dynamic - its been this way for 5 years now. Not even Nadal being #1 with a 3000 plus points advantage. Given that matches at this level are decided by the finest of margins, this mental pressure difference may ultimately be the biggest explanatory factor for their lopsided HTH. Not court surfaces, not game styles, not mental strength in itself (we've seen plenty of that from both against all the others)

Would be interesting to see what happens say 4 years later, when someone like a JMDP comes along and establishes a winning record against Nadal in the latter stages of Nadal's career... :)

"On the other hand, Fed's got to be thinking - what more do I have to do? Beat a guy with a match up advantage, 5 yrs younger and in his prime, when I'm on the tail end of my career? Just to prove (once again) that I'm the man? But maybe he doesn't think this way - that's why he's TMF. He's gone on record saying he wants 4 more..."

Didn't Fed say recently that we are not going to see anything new in a Fedal match...we've seen it all before. Dosen't get hopes high in me.

"Nothing seems to change this dynamic - its been this way for 5 years now. Not even Nadal being #1 with a 3000 plus points advantage."

Apparently, 14-7 does not translate to ownage. Federer will be the favorite even on clay..i think it amuses him to some extent (from his comments in pressers).

freddy,

The explanation for the lopsided H2H is that Nadal only plays Federer in the months of March through July, the period in which he has won 28 of his 31 titles over the past 5 years. Nadal is only "pumped up" enough to reach finals in the months of August through February when there is something special to win, like the Olympics in 2008-2009, or the career grand slam now. Other than that he has not won a single title for a full half of the year five years in a row (always the same half). But with his "grip change" and "improved fitness," I have no doubt that he will come through this time and help sell lots of merchandise to all the kids from one to ninety-two who believe that the ends justify the means.

I think the chances are extremely high for a Fedal final now. It would surprise me if either of the two get booted out now before the final.

Its still a tasty matchup. Though as a Fed fan, i tend to get disappointed after the matches are over.

How the two get along outside of court is a mystery...its not just respect between those two.

And Pete, wonderful article!

MattZ@12:50 -- yep.

Nadal and Federer In the final, perhaps, cant wait to see the next set of matches.

I don't seem to understand why it would be the most important match of ALL time if they meet on Sunday.

Important yes...but most important of all time?

Why? Just because it never happened in the past five years? Or because its Rafa's career slam match?

I'm annoyed as hell by this "greatest match ever" bs. Have to repeat what I said on ESPN:
===================
...12 or 13 majors would not seal any deals for Nadal, when high mark is well above. Regarding this projected final being "a greatest match ever" - this is a bunch of bs, created by Rafa fans (Gilbert being one of them). This match is 3 years overdue. Fed of 2010 is nowhere close to his peak abilities. When Fed was in his prime, Rafa was not ready. Rafa MISSED HIS CHANCE to play "greatest match ever". Now when Fed won all there is to win it is too late to tout Rafa's horn.
It was already too late after Federer won Roland Garros 2009. When player reaches all his goals, the motivation most likely fades. The fact that Federer still plays and reaches latter stages of Majors does not mean that he competes with the same intensity. He just plays for the love of the game.

Nadal is not competing with the same Federer. Fed may try to summon some of his old magic, but he will most likely fail, because 29y-olds don't move like they used to. Movement is a key. Fed is a tad too late to the balls, than in his peak years. So proclaiming that Nadal beating this Fed means anything in the context of who is the greater player historically is a DAMN LIE. Was Marciano greater than Joe Lous? He beat up on him pretty good, but this does not mean jack.

Hi ladyjulia: we were talking about it on another thread..1st time No's 1 & 2 played in all 4 GS finals.

What a way for Bodo to cover his behind! Speaking of a Federer-Nadal US Open final as if it's a destination point to arrive by destiny contradicts his ego-driven claim that a Federer-Nadal final at this year's US Open is a near impossibility!

"So let's take it up a notch. How about we look at five U.S. Open predictions that have no chance of coming to pass. We'll take them in order, building up to the least likely to come true (August 27 - Peter Bodo Blog)."

"3. We will have a Nadal-Federer final. Nice as it would be, and as much as the draw has made it possible (how about Nadal having to play Berdych and Federer drawing Soderling in semifinal and quarterfinal matches, respectively?), one of those two worthy combatants will fail to make the appointment. Don't ask me which one, though (August 27 - Peter Bodo Blog)."

Only did he state "2. Venus Williams will win the tournament" and "1. The record for number of games in a fifth set at a major will be broken" to be less likely (August 27 - Peter Bodo Blog).

I can accept ship Federer to glide across the waters and survive the worst storms at sea to arrive untattered at port. I can accept the locomotive Nadal thumping along the tracks with great energy, only to screech it's brakes at the depot, provided it doesn't derail itself first. But I cannot stand to listen to Bodo's hot air inflate his balloon anymore.

Please, let out the hot air, Bodo, or may you inflate your hot air balloon so great only to rise into the sun and get burned to a crisp!

http://espn.go.com/sports/tennis/blog/_/name/bodo_peter/id/5503092/count-things-us-open

If they both make it to the final, it's a toss up. The only GS final between these great No's 1 & 2 that is not a toss up is the French.

..which is why Roger thinks he can win 3-4 more GSs.

Very expressive, and Nadal looked good. I remain a skeptic about him on fast hard. Verdasco is completely cowed by Rafa, and was tired. Youzhny is an interesting case. I don't think he intimidates easy. I see Youzhny has having versatility and court coverage that approaches Federer's; at least he's fluid and has some great groundstrokes. Nadal to win over him? Probably, but it won't be so fast.

Djoker is looking mighty relaxed, healthy and smooth out there. Good weather for him. Big serve on him. Amazing speed around the court, and his groundstrokes land very deep. Very deep. I give him a 40% chance of beating Fed.

I will take either Fed or Novak on this surface to beat Rafa. That train looks good against pre-whupped Spaniards. Not necessarily against #1 or #3.

Hi AB,

Sure..that would be great..but dosen't make it totally important for ALL time,no?

Also, from ESPN:

"This match, if it happens, could place an asterisk on one player's career and an exclamation point on the other. "

I have to disagree about judging two exceptional players based on one match.

I mean Wimby 2008 was well hyped...coz Fed owned that court, not lost in 5 yrs...gunning for a record...Rafa gunning for the #1 ranking which he had been chasing for 3 years...Rafa's third consecutive final...having lost two finals to Fed before...

That match deserved to be hyped..that was some storyline..

Here, they have never met..Rafa's never been to any finals...its not like Fed owns the court either (he just lost last year to a young guy)...no records are at stake..no ranking is at stake...its not like Rafa and Fed have denied each other anything here at the USO.

And to judge the whole career by this one match where the stakes are not that high (okay..career slam for Rafa...but everybody knows he is going to get that sooner or later anyway)...is a little too harsh and unfair in my opinion. To either of the players involved.

A bit of perspective from Roger...

Nadal versus Verdasco, he's 10-0. He's got the winner of Stan and Youzhny if he gets past Verdasco. Can you get the percentage chances of him not reaching the final?

Want an exact number or...

If you want, but more or less.

I think he's the favorite. Huge surprise. (Laughter.) I mean, he's the number one seed, you know, so he's always gonna be the favorite on that side of the draw. But obviously he's also playing against guys who never won a Slam, never been in finals before, and so that's obviously gonna he's gonna fancy his chances.Plus he hasn't had the roughest of all trips into the quarters. Then again, with a Saturday Sunday final, it doesn't matter until Saturday how you got there.

If you're gonna play an epic maybe on Saturday, that's gonna really influence your chances on final day. That's what's rough about this format here at the Open. Nothing is safe until you're through, until you're in the final.
Seems like he's playing real well. Yeah, it's hard to say who's gonna beat him out of that section. But then again, they didn't get there without playing well, either, those guys.

"If they both make it to the final, it's a toss up. The only GS final between these great No's 1 & 2 that is not a toss up is the French."

Agreed. Though work still be done, especially on Federer's side.

Btw, Railroad Rafa and Captain Fed sounds like a kid's program. Not sure I'll be "on board" with these metaphors moving forward.

what a dream final it would be

Djokovich will take a lot out of federer on saturday. it will be a tough 4 set match or even a 5 setter. 29 years old GOAT might not be able to tackle Rafa the very next day.
however, this is asphalt, a very fast hard court, and this is actually federer's best surface (yes even better than grass). I just hope that federer has not lost teh desire to win another us open, and when rafa comes at him hard, federer will give it back with interest.
however, it seems that this will be rafa's slam. sad.

Also,

I don't know if i am pessimistically biased, but that ESPN article tells me the media has already made up its mind about which player will be asterisked and which one will have the exclamation point.

I think its a tad bit unfair. Why is the media so bent on asterisking everything that Roger does? Because everything he does looks so easy? Because he doesn't fit the conventional strong athlete look? What is it with the media and their narratives?

I have never seen the media asterisk anything that Rafa does...or maybe I am too biased..but something tells me its Roger's career they are wanting to asterisk. Based on a single match.

oh well...good that Roger is not my personal relative..so not that I am offended, but it does puzzle me a bit always.

Either way, let's see if the Djoker will play his card.

I'll admit to thinking of Rafa's black kit as a pirate ship rather than a train. ;-)

Regarding the Fedal hyping - I don't see why it needs to be any more sinister than the media trying to drum up casual fan interest by raising the stakes as high as possible.

On matchups alone I'd have to give Fed the edge - he's had the harder path. Saturday will be HUGE! Rafa's playing the best he ever has at the Open. I like Pete's playful one-upmanship metaphor - it fits perfectly here. Let's hope for a wind-free Fed-Nadal final! The best gift that could be given this most tacky of tennis majors. I swear - what is UP with the stupid Classic Rock music during match breaks? Do Americans really have such a limited attention span? Is silence during match breaks such an abhorrent thing?

So Mick1303, how come Nadal beat Federer in his prime at the French. Nadal was what 19 when he started beating Federer at the French. Federer was 24 at that time. Then in 2008 at Wimbledon on one of Fed's best surfaces, Nadal beats him and at this time Nadal 21-22, Fed 26-27. 26-27 is hardly past the prime of your career in tennis. Then at the Australian, Nadal wins again over Federer. Again, Nadal is still only 22 ( not in his prime yet there buddy ) I know that Fed beat Nadal 2 times at Wimbledon in good 5 set matches, but Nadal was 20 years old. I mean you are an idiot to say anything about the greatest match ever. Nothing is ever certain. What if they never played each other period? You know, I enjoy both Federer and Nadal. I think they both are amazing tennis players who have made tennis so much fun to watch.I do agree with you slightly and think that the implications of this match are not as high as everyone says. All I will say is that it does not look good for Fed to lose the important matches to Nadal. Nadal is what, 6-2 in Grand Slam finals against Federer. I mean throw out the French and it is 2-2 in finals. The only thing is that Nadal won 2 finals on different surfaces. On top of that, Federer won his one french open on clay without having to play Nadal. If Nadal were healthy, he would have crushed Fed again. That being said I don't think it really hurts Nadal to lose in the final to Federer. If Fed loses, its just another notch on the H2H against Federer who is the GOAT like everyone proclaims, but has an overwhelmingly losing record against one guy. Sorry, but there is something at stake for Federer here. He knows it and you know it. I mean, I am not saying Nadal is better than Federer. Federer is the best in my opinion, regardless, but objectively you have to see those facts and give a good thought there.

Well, there is no monolithic media. The writers are individuals who are salivating at the thought of another Insta-Classic. Lookee, El Jon got a book out of Wimby 08.

In this era of 24-hour news they have to write about something, and the spectrum (as with any other profession) runs from poor to mediocre to occasional excellence. Ravi Uhba over at ESPN just posted a great piece on giving Venus love at the USO.

It's more exciting to watch and write about when you don't know the outcome. Any meeting in a GS final between these 2 is incredibly exciting. If you spreadsheet the conditions and their strengths and weaknesses it's just about even. As it should be between these long-running Nos 1 & 2.

They still have to win one more match each. I don't pooh-pooh Novak or Misha. They will not give their matches away.

Jewel - 'pirate ship'...lol

Let's see which ship sails better in the wind :)

Fedalfan16 - some players mature early, others late. When Rafa burst onto the scene at age 17, he was by no means a fully finished product, but he was in the Borg / Mac / Becker early maturing player category. Fed won his first Slam at age 22 - relatively late, like Lendl. When a dominant player plays the next gen player - say 5 years younger, it usually pans out this way - the dominant player runs up a positive HTH initially, then the new kid catches up, then the HTH reverses as the once dominant player tails off and the other guy is in his prime. (Fed-DelPo would be a classic case, with Fed's early lead likely to get reversed if both play out another 2-3 yrs).

Didn't happen that way with Nadal, and the key reason there was that after their first couple of meetings at Miami which they split, they played 5-6 matches on clay. At that stage Rafa never made his app with Fed in HC finals, which the Fed was winning. Fed on the other hand, made those finals and lost. When they did meet in 2006-07 on grass, on HC in Shanghai, Fed started evening out the HTH...

Remember something similar happening with Lendl-Becker...Lendl was dominant, but Becker was an early maturing player who didn't lose to Lendl as often as he should have...

should be "made those clay finals and lost"...After the initial 6-1, Fed has always been playing catchup in the HTH...and he is never going to catch up now. If anything, the longer he keeps playing, the worse the HTH is going to look

IF it's windy at the final, and these two guys make it, Rafa will win.....unless he is exhausted or injured from the semi. Roger will not be able to perform with the precision and power needed against the combination of Rafa's spin, speed AND a tricky wind. Rafa will wear him down with defense and power. IF conditions are perfect, Roger has a chance, but I still think Rafa will get him. Rafa has improved his game over and over, now hitting winners form impossible defensive positions all the time, and putting such spin on everything! I would like to see Roger serve and volley him some time, but that's no easy task either.........I'm rooting for Roger, but I think Rafa has too much game.
I remember when they met in the Miami final (or was it semi?) for the first time on hardcourt when Rafa was 19. Rafa went up two sets and 5~3 in a third set tiebreak. Roger survived two long ralies and came back to win. Rafa's hardcourt game is INFINITELY better now. Roger still has trouble with the Rafa staple cross-court, topspin farehand....I just don't see Roger doing it on hardcourts.....I think Novak would have a better chance, though I like Roger over Nole........IT also seems that Roger has peaked ( he was perfect against Robin S), Rafa is not quite there yet....time will tell.....If Roger beats Novak, it's gonna take a lot out of him. I bet Mikhail will use the same tactics Nicolay Davidenko used against Rafa in the year end championship: Pound Rafa's bachand with off the court crosscourt forehands.....copuld cause him trouble.

"I remember when they met in the Miami final (or was it semi?) for the first time on hardcourt ..."

Jojo: that was the 2005 final. But it wasn't their first HC meeting. The first was in Miami the year before, when Rafa won in straight sets.

a bunch of hypocrites.close out this comment box ASAP.

Mick1303,

FedalFan16 is right on many points. You, for sure, are too far on Fed's nuts. Nadal is better than him, simple as that. Look at their head to head record. Stevie Wonder can see this. . . Rafa OWNS him. And had he not missed Wimbledon entirely and not been injured at the French prior to that, two more titles would be under Rafa and not Fed. Fed isn't going to beat Rafa in a final when Rafa is healthy, not ever again. Watch and see. Fed may be the "Goat" and is truly amazing, however, if he is utterly dominated by Nadal overall in head to head matches, maybe that "Goat" title is a bit pre-mature. We'll see when both retire what the final tallies are.

Oh yeah, and Rafa has beaten Fed when he was in his "prime" more than once, and in a final no less, his favorite final, where he cried like a girl and ruined Rafa's ceremony. Remember that? So don't go on about how he never played Fed when he was at his best. He did, and he beat him.

Vegas,
Fed didnt play Wimbly 08 final in his prime. He was recovering from mononucleosis. Why are Nadal fans as one-dimensional as the player? If Fed won FO 09 coz Rafa was injured, then Rafa won Wimbly 08 coz Fed was suffering from mono. Got it? Simple.

Why has buttboy got such an EASY path to the Semi Final?? The so called members of the Spanish armada are well known chokers. Choke, choke, choke!!
Roger has to go through the world #3 and Soderling to get to the Semi Final. Where is the comparison??

Nadal has won Feder in his prime who says he didn't? Nadal and feder are great tennis players but at this point Nadal is the better one. He is number one for some reason? Don't u think? The humbleness that this man possesses is so beautiful that you have to love him on the other hand the way Feder pounds on his chest as the best is sickning. But again, they are both great players!! And definately both have diff styles unique and breathtaking. But I prefer the loco motion, the humbleness and the great player that he is. Nadal VAMOS!!!

Hmmm, the quality of conversation on this board is definitely deteriorating now. I wonder what it will be like come Sunday/Monday. Perhaps Rafa and Roger should both retire gracefully before their semis?

Hi Pete, you're funny! No, I don't have the impression they have been playing for each other, lol.
But I agree Nadal's performance was less fluid and inspired :(
Actually, I enjoyed watching Roger's inspired play like a small kid (a Rafa one, maybe?), but please don't bring it in the final!

Anyway, I still hope Federer beats Nole, because I'd prefer him in the final if Rafa gets there (as small if).

One thing that I like (and let's now see if I have learnt something from Matt Zemek and MA, so please anyone correct me if I'm mistaken) is that the Fed-Nole semi is so much more attractive for the general public than the Rafa-Youzhny likely beatdown, that it will most certainly be given the second slot (closer to prime time) and, specially if it goes the distance, the winner might end up beaten and lacking too much recovery time. *smells blood*

(This last comment is dedicated to Tim :P)

Then Nole could quit midway through the final, thereby completing his Retirement Grand Slam and leaving Youzhny as the most improbable (and bemused) Slam winner of the last six years.

I don't know why people bring up racial remarks when we talking about tennis, a game. Simply put, Rafa and Nadal are both great players. They did not get where they are at by no other means than their play, dedication, heart and greatness. However, more simply put at this moment Number one ranked RAFA NADAL, Number two ranked ROGER FEDERER. Need say more?

Hi Kwaku,
didn't realise anyone else was around. Your comment seems to have bisected my scattered musings about what it might take to bring civility back to TW!

(Contd) Youzhny, convinced that it's all a bad dream, will hit himself on the head several times with his racquet during the presentation ceremony, thereby providing Grand Slam tennis with its bloodiest ever conclusion, and sending ratings soaring all over the world. Tennis will become the new soccer and Youzhny its biggest star.

Okay, I'm done for now.

FedalFan16: ...On top of that, Federer won his one french open on clay without having to play Nadal. If Nadal were healthy, he would have crushed Fed again.

============
That is the mantra Nadal fans keep repeating. It happened in "coulda,shoulda,woulda" world, not in the real world. In the real world Nadal lost and Federer won.
By this logic, if Nadal wins this US Open it will have asterisk next to it, because he didn't beat Del Potro - current title holder, who dismantled Nadal here a year ago. So his title and calendar Grand Slam does not count. Does this logic remind you of something?

19yo Nadal beat Federer in Grand Slams only on clay. Outside clay he was never there to meet Federer. Stop bringing Wimbledon 2008 and AO 2009 - this is not the prime Federer already. The reason why their head-to-head is what it is was beaten to death. To me Shanghai matches on hard were a good indication of what would happen if Nadal managed to meet Federer at US Open in 2005-2007.
After Federer won that last leg of his Grand Slam nothing can diminish his career. No amount of Brad Gilbert's nonsense will change that.
Let's see how Nadal will fare when his main rival will be 5 years younger, shall we.

Jai, I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean I am mean? Just teasing a little, but not really uncivilized I think...

Jai

great, it looks like best possible scenario considering all these conversations going around :-))))

Youzhny for the win!!!!

Why do people have to bring up the respective primes of Nadal and Federer as if it's a finite thing ? Federer played brilliant tennis to win the Australian Open this year, as if he were in his 'prime' yet it doesn't fit into his supposed peak consensus around 05-07. Nadal's supposed prime started from 08 onwards, yet that was interrupted by his injuries and he spent the best part of the year without a title, his driest run for a long time. Of course, an injury should be regarded an exceptional circumstance, but my point is that the uncanny nature of both men is that they are able to raise their games and attack the majors when their form might not suggest it. Such is the brilliance of both of them that they can play world beating tennis when they're not regarded to be in their prime periods.

freddy,
"as always Nadal has nothing to lose".
I disagree. I actually think that what he can lose is historic and huge. In economy they call it the cost of opportunity. Nadal can now become the youngest player ever to complete a career grand slam (among other records, I guess), and the present conditions are almost ideal.
And not only for now, but going into the future: having won the USOpen once, I think his chances to win it in the next few years will clearly increase even if the conditions are not so good again (with an in-form Del Potro, for example). Because of the experience of having won it once, because of the confidence, because of the message sent to the rest of the players...
However, if he does not win, it will be like "if you couldn't do it now, you'll never do it". Like Federer winning his single Roland Garros: do you think he had nothing to lose when he was playing it?

RAFA RULES! He will make history on Sunday.

Glad mick1313 brought the real world into play.

That would be the world in which Rafa has a 14-7 head to head lead over Federer, a 6-2 head to head lead over Federer in the majors, and gained Eight (8) majors singles titles at a younger age than did Federer.

Real world. I like it.

Posted by Julian 09/10/2010 at 07:15 AM
Why do people have to bring up the respective primes of Nadal and Federer as if it's a finite thing ? Federer played brilliant tennis to win the Australian Open this year, as if he were in his 'prime' yet it doesn't fit into his supposed peak consensus around 05-07. Nadal's supposed prime started from 08 onwards, yet that was interrupted by his injuries and he spent the best part of the year without a title, his driest run for a long time. Of course, an injury should be regarded an exceptional circumstance, but my point is that the uncanny nature of both men is that they are able to raise their games and attack the majors when their form might not suggest it. Such is the brilliance of both of them that they can play world beating tennis when they're not regarded to be in their prime periods.

====================
The reason for this ("bringing up the respective primes") is the speculation of Gilbert that if Nadal wins on Sunday that he is a better player overall (not on a given day, but career-wise). The fact that aging player manages to win some majors even on the tail end of his career does not suggest that we're seeing the best version of said player. Sampras won Wimbledon 2000 and couple months later was annihilated by Safin. Was Safin the better player that day? You bet! Was his best better than the very best of Sampras? I highly doubt. What is certain is that Sampras had a better career and this is how they are judged, not by their head-to-head, which is even in 3-3.

Kwaku at 7 AM: no, not at all. I was just saying that your 6.39 AM comment happened to come in between two comments I had written, about some of the earlier uncivilised talk.

Oh my goodness, someone is still claiming Roger lost 2008 Wimbledon because he had mono. That's pretty funny. The guy was playing top class tennis for hours... not something one could actually do if one was suffering from illness that notoriously saps your energy, for months. Mono is pretty serious stuff.
Thank goodness Roger is not the one offering that excuse.

Ok, enough talk about the guys, Robin is gone, so men's tennis is over for me. Looking forward to Caro and Vee. Hoping Kim will be shakey as she has been throughout the tournament. Vee will have to fight the home crowd who will support their "jersey girl" as they did last year when they played, but she just needs to tune out support for the local girl and play her game. Go V.

ola kwaku
ur right i'm pretty sure at one point fed fans and the media despaired that fed would ever win the french open, so i can see the parallel with rafa/us open!

and seriously who are these people hurling snarky comments at each other and whose moniker i don't recognize, and i've been lurking here for 4yrs only recently decided to start commenting a yr ago when i got my laptop

anyhoo pete if nothing else, this has a nice narrative to it! its always been a contrast of style between them!
youzhny please loose! djoko too, if fed wins nadal has a good chance to win final or loose, i'm just not sure about djokovic he's so mean to rafa on a hard-court sighhhh!!!

Jai, gotcha. I thought of "bisected" in the space of the ideas, not the chronology. So I thought I had something to do with the uncivilized atmosphere.

yes...shanghai matches 2006-07..thanks for reminding those series.seems like a long time ago now.those were the years when hardcourt tennis was at its very best.simply electric. orgasmic tennis...

"if fed wins nadal has a good chance to win final or loose, i'm just not sure about djokovic he's so mean to rafa on a hard-court sighhhh!!!"

eclipse22: somehow I just can't see Djokovic beating Roger and Rafa on consecutive days, given his recent physical problems. As a Rafa fan, Roger is always the opponent I'll be more concerned about, especially with his record in this tournament.

Good morning SamE.
I think this post is on-topic, that's why were talking about them.
The current CC thread is still alive, Got Sleep? (CC). Maybe you could go there to talk about Caro and the girls.

Jai, Nole beat Rafa the last three times they've met on HC. Rafa beat Fed the last time they did.

Kwaku, I know Nole has a great record against Rafa on HCs. Just saying that the Djokovic we've been seeing in the last few months (the guy who develops so many stamina problems in the latter stages of Slams) probably wouldn't have the tank to first beat Roger in the semi and then come out and win a gruelling match against Rafa the next day. Of course, that's just my opinion. Obviously there are other factors involved, such as how long/tough the Nadal-Youzhny match will be.

Matt Zemek - "Djokovic is a damn good player. If you go through the scorelines of the last three Fed-Djokovic matches here at the U.S. Open, you'll see that it often takes 7 games to win a set when those two men play at Ashe Stadium. Many of their sets are coin-flips."

First of all, last year's 7-6, 7-5, 7-5 is very misleading. Federer was the much better player throughout. Besides, if it is such a "coin-flip", how is it that Roger won 9 sets to 1 of Novak? No luck involved, trust me.

Jai, that's also true.
Still, if I could choose, I'd rather have Roger in the final.

Yes--here's hoping that the semis and finals give us some good stuff. So far, with Del Potro not here--players like Murray, Berdych, Davydenko etc. crashing out early-- the draws have seemed somewhat un-slam-like. Rafa's draw so far has bordered on the ludicrous with Roger's perhaps only a bit more challenging with a dangerous Soderling as opposed to a tired Verdasco for Rafa. Hopefully the fun begins now :>)

we shall see?
just saw clip of youzhny presser,he's gotta like his chances no pressure, everyone discounting him, no expectations
nadal's got the weight of the world on his shoulders to perform but hey he's use to it and thrives on it mostly!!
today is frazzle free for me, if vee wins super duper cool otherwise meh!blech! bof! whaaeeeverr!! serena ain't playing so its easy breezy free for this williams fan!

I think Rafa will beat Youzhny in straights, but I'm not sure about the Fedovic. Nole has been playing very well --I'd say 50-50.

oh pete here's a better narrative,cue my moniker
rafa as indiana jones,the swash buckling devil-dare adventurer looking his next conquest square in the eye, no matter the danger!
if his heart is pure and his intentions true ,he will prevail all the obstacles in his way(totally quoting lines from the last crusade lol)

Dear Mr. Bodo,

I've only recently starting reading your columns, and as a writer, a long-time tennis fan and handball player, I want to count myself as an admirer - you're great at what you do.

As for what's going to happen Sunday should Roger and Rafael meet, not so great. The winningest, most successful player in the history of tennis has already demonstrated what happens when the unstoppable object slams into the Federer Express - 14 derailments and counting.

I expect nothing different on Sunday on hardcourt. All the talent and grace and preparation and trophies on earth are no match for ferocity Nadal will bring to bear. It doesn't get to five sets. And perhaps, though probably not, folks will see that one really can't be the "greatest" if you simply cannot conquer your greatest rival.

But as one who was hypnotized by Fed for years, I understand the reluctance to confront reality. However, reality's just one station away, and we'll be watching as it comes rumbling in on Sunday.

Cordially,
Sal Anthony

Sal Anthony,
Nice post, thanks for the good laugh.
I agree with you in most (including your praises for Pete, no matter how much we tease him occasionally) except for the bad reasoning behind your "one really can't be the "greatest" if you simply cannot conquer your greatest rival".
Tennis is a game of matchups. A beating B and B beating C does not mean A beating C. That's why the metrics for greatness are defined against the field. Federer could be the better player and still have a negative h2h with Rafa. (Whether he really is can only be assessed by the end of their careers.)

As always great article Pete. I was watching Nadal's match last night against Verdasco. Nadal looks very fit. Great to see Nadal playing healthy & I guess his knees are holding up well despite the hardcourt. I also noticed that he looks slimmer or is it just his outfit. Vamos Rafa. The USOpen trophy is just 2 matches away fr your grip. Good luck.

Dear Mr. Bodo,

A P.S. to my prior post. To the Fed fans: He's 7-14 against Rafa, winning just 2 slam finals of the 7 they've played, and he's lost 40 of the 69 sets of tennis they've engaged in. He beat him twice at Wimbledon but the second time was by a nose. Nadal owns him at the French and massacred him their last time out, where Roger won 4 games. This is a lot of things, but what it isn't is a rivalry. Federer is a great champion. Nadal is the greatest, most ferocious tennis player of all time. Sunday will simply be the icing on the retirement cake for the "GOAT." End of story.

Cordially,
Sal Anthony

Nole is already jinxed by Fed and Nadal. They own him big time!!!!!! Not because they are necessarily better, it's because they are mentally more stable a "must have requirement in this sport". This is coming from a Nole fan!!!!! I would love for him to break through and spoil the New york party, but knowing him he can might as well brain fart his chances like he did in the last 3 years in New York once he sees Fed on the other side of the net. So I would not bet on anything, because you never know which Nole will show up!!!!! On the other side, both Federer and Nadal have to face Nole and Youzny respectively so it's premature to set-up a Fedal date, even though some already booked it.... I for one am tired of the Fedal encounter/rivalry!!!! The sport needs spice and variaty and I hope Nole and Youzny have something to say and prove!!!!!! Cheers for good tennis!!!!!

"one really can't be the "greatest" if you simply cannot conquer your greatest rival"

If that's so, why we have to wait till Sunday? Why can't we name Rafa GOAT right now (we could do it some time ago already)?

Sunday match (if it will happen) will change nothing. Or I am missing something? :-)

"Nadal is the greatest, most ferocious tennis player of all time. Sunday will simply be the icing on the retirement cake for the "GOAT." End of story"

OK, I am not missing anything :-)

Vamos Rafa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I spyed The Donald last night...with all the wind last night at Ashe, it's amazing his hair did NOT move!!!!!

http://i54.tinypic.com/24c7fhk.jpg

also there...Don Jr and his wife

http://i51.tinypic.com/2gtvq4w.jpg

I think both Rs are great. But what I've always thought is what RF might have achieved without a RN chipping away behind him for 5 years, when RF was in his best years (24-29) while RN was still developing his other-than-clay game being only 19-24 yrs old. Without RN, RF might have his 16 plus RN's 8=24 !!!:O So, yes, RF is GREAT and has outshone ALL during his era except certain young Spainish pup...and who knows what the result will be when RN reaches his 'elder' years of 29? We shall see.

I don't care much who wins this USO (Nole,Youzhny most certainly wont).All i want to know is what do people find so horrifying about Nole's dad wearing that t-shirt???

Morning, all.

Going to be a long weekend. If you're planning to write a "here's why my favorite player is the best" (HWMFPITB) post, can I tactfully suggest you wait until after Sunday's final? Otherwise, we'll have lots of repetitive stuff to wade through, though of course it will all be civil, like the rest of the stuff on this page.

Thanks for your consideration.

Too verbose, Pete. Say it in fewer words.

* sigh, looks like we're back to Fedal again. A tired, old matchup, in my opnion. We know how that match goes: Rafa hits a a heavy, high bouncing forehand to Fed's one handed backhand, rinse and repeat. I for one am not getting as excited about the prospect as many people seem to be. There wouldn't be such an inevitability about them meeting in the final if Delpo were around, he could clock either of them.

well pete i do disagree with you, off course nadal and federer are the best players so far at the us open, and i also as everyone want to watch that final between federer and nadal, but i would saying that your understimating both djokovic and youzhny, they are performing at least as good as both nadal and federer, both have already beat federer and nadal (on slams too), so i would say that federer have a 70% percent of being on that final based on his performance which is the best that i have seen from him in months, and i would say for nadal that he has a 40% to be in that final mostly because i didnt see youzhny play this way never and because he had pass through a lot of suffering and sweat to get to that semifinal so i would say that youzhny would win that match (based on what i have seen so far from both nadal and mikhail), it would be youzhny vs federer final, I would rather not say whos the winner because for last years final i said federer and just look what happened, tennis is so unpredictable at these days because of an increase in the level competitiveness from all players on tour, just look youzhny as an example......

Youzhny played great yesterday, but a win over Nadal?????? NOT

just for the record youzhny had already beat nadal on a grand slam, and it was in the uso......

Sometimes I think I've stumbled onto a board for religious fundamentalists discussing the relative merits of Koran or Bible burning. As far as I'm concerned burning either stinks, there is no GOAT and both are great - pretty much how I feel about Roger and Rafa, though Roger is my own personal favourite.

so i would say that youzhny is going to beat nadal, and probably would have a chance for the title against fed in the final.... bye bye nadal see you next year!!!!

@agent spooner
many people here would jump on your for saying this...but i agree. I also think youhzny can beat nadal here. but it would be tough. rafa is not the same hardcourt player he was in 2006. however, this court is too fast for nadal. let us see what happens.
like all federer fans i hope he wins this title once again (although he has nothing to prove anymore).
if federer wins, it would be in straight sets or max 4. if it goes 5, rafa will win.

Jai, fantastic post about the Youz winning and the post-match Sunday Bloody Sunday. :)

Also agreed about the long weekend ahead if it's a Fedal final. Mama mia. In many ways, a Youz-Djoko final would be hilarious for TW's sake. :)

Fed's amazing, Nadal's amazing. Can't we just enjoy them both?

"one really can't be the "greatest" if you simply cannot conquer your greatest rival"

People who go on and on with this will eat crow once Rafa has a losing record against a younger player. It will happen, you can bank on that.

one more thing everyone.....dont count the djoker out! he is dangerous and playin very well.

Kombo, exactly. I'm a Rafa fan, but what comes around goes around. When Rafa is 2-10 against Delpo after a few more years, there won't be so much talk like this.

I have to laugh when so many people predict a Fedal final when the semi finals have yet to be played.

Sherlock : Valiant as ever - I think I love you !