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The Sizzling Swiss 01/24/2011 - 12:39 PM

Stan by Pete Bodo

One thing that's become abundantly clear over the past few years is that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are tied together at the ankles with a very short rope. Everything either man does seems to have an impact on the other, if not in what we might call the real world, then inside that enormous bubble of their rivalry, where matters are not entirely in their own hands.

What I mean is, no matter how Roger or Rafa might feel about things—and I believe they'd just as soon both go about their business as if the other didn't exist, until such time as a showdown is mandated by the draw—other agents, voices, influences and compelling, aborning narratives conspire to link their names and destinies.

If Federer beats Tommy Robredo, it isn't long before Robredo is discarded, as if he were a mere prop, and the emerginig theme is how the victory will influence a potenial Rafa vs Roger confrontation. If Nadal crushes Bernard Tomic, ways are found to interpret the triumph as good or bad news for Federer, as if the glaring reality that it is very bad news for Tomic is merely incidental.

Thus, the pendulum of the rivalry during this tournament has slowly swung back in Rafa's favor. Federer came in hot, Nadal's chances looked a little less certain. Would there be a Rafa Slam, like there had been a Martina Slam and Serena Slam? Not if Federer had any say in it, and unease percolated freely in the Nadal camp once he lost in Doha and thereby had to postpone an appointment with Roger. But Gilles Simon and even Robredo, to whom Federer lost a set in the fourth round, have moved the pendulum back the other way. In matches with those men, Federer showed signs of the inconsistency that plagued him at times through the first nine months of 2010.

Rafa helped himself the other day, giving the pendulum a good shove with his comprehensive beatdown of Marin Cilic, who had won their only previous match under comparable, open-air, hard-court conditions in 2009 in Beijing. Inside the bubble, the headlines said: "Nadal Beats Tall Croatian, Now Playing Better Than Federer." No sense complaining about all this; it's part and parcel of rivalry. One reason neither of these guys needs to look over his shoulder is because two million designated back-watchers are doing it for each of them.

Tonight, Federer gets his own Cilic, which is another way of saying that he has a chance to shape the narrative inside the bubble in a way that will improve his status. It's not that Stanislas Wawrinka, Federer's quarterfinal opponent, plays very much like Cilic. It's more that he represents a similar type of player, and is presently making a bid to join the group that has come to terms with the fact that it's going to take tennis played at that outer edge where power and consistency meet to take Federer down. The challenge for Federer is that Wawrinka, whom expert witness John McEnroe has said has the best backhand in all of men's tennis, has been making progress in that bid to join the Soderlings and Berdychs of this world. Just look at his photo on the tournament's official website and you'll know what I mean when I say the man has intentions. It's less head shot than mug shot.

Wawrinka is well-seasoned for this tussle. He's 25, and apparently ticked off that he's dilly-dallied and failed to make the most of his talent, which has been a realization of near-viral proportions in the ATP ranks these days. Seeded No. 19, Wawrinka has had a pretty tough draw in terms of the general quality of the opposition, if not necessarily the Xs and Os of each matchup.

After defeating Teymuraz Gabashvili, Wawrinka easily handled fast-rising prodigy Grigor Dimitrov (it was their first meeting), after which he performed a clinical deconstruction of Gael Monfils—a guy who had beaten him twice (on hard courts) since the Manislas won their first battle way back in 2007. In the fourth round, Wawrinka swamped Andy Roddick, the No. 8 seed, to improve his record against Roddick to 3-1. Wawrinka hasn't lost a set yet, although that's likely to change. Still, the only player who's seeded lower than Wawrinka in the men's quarters is the unseeded but electric Alexandr Dolgopolov. Wawrinka is seeded 12 places lower than the next lowest man, David Ferrer.

Against Roddick, Wawrinka's first serve percentage was an unimpressive 49, but he rained down 24 aces (a pretty good indicator of how deceptive statistics can be). Also, Wawrinka powdered 67 winners in 29 (total) games, for a scary average of 2.9 winners per game. Federer hasn't come close to matching Wawrinka's single-match winners count, and hit more than 37 only in the two matches in which he lost at least one set. Federer has made 40 more unforced errors in the tournament, with 147 in all. Overall Wawrinka is a net +82 in the winner-to-unforced error ratio, while Federer is +27.

I cite those figures because they suggest that Wawrinka goes in with an edge if it's going to be a shoot-out, although it's true that Federer has had to play three more sets than his next opponent, which adds to both his winner and unforced error counts. That's why averages and ratios are the best way to look at certain quantifiable factors.

Barring a drop-off in Wawrinka's form, Federer is going to have to be mighty sharp for this one. If he goes toe to toe with Wawrinka from the baseline, he could be in for a long and perhaps very rough night. Federer leads the rivalry, 6-1, and it's significant that Wawrinka's lone win was on clay—the surface that, up to a point, aids players who aren't nimble because it allows them more time to draw a bead on the ball. This will be a great opportunity for Federer to make the most of his excellent mobility and the new, aggressive elements in his game. If he can keep Wawrinka moving and under pressure, he can neutralize some of those big groundstrokes. It isn't so much a matter of ending rallies as it is keeping Wawrinka from getting his feet planted during them.

Wawrinka will continue his interrupted quest for validation (he hit a career-high No. 9 in early summer of 2008, but leveled off and began dropping to his present position of No. 19) with one enormous disadvantage that has nothing to do with forehands or backhands, and that's his Swiss nationality. It's a small nation with, traditionally, a dearth of heroes in major spectator sports. Federer has become the nation's sporting icon, and it's safe to say that Wawrinka was awful lucky to have Roger for a doubles partner when the pair won the gold at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Like it or not, resist it or not, there are karma issues at play in these situations, which is why I suspect that the match will be close but Federer will pull it out—or the Manislas will blow it—in the end.

I'll bet that even Rafa watches this one, even if he needn't bother to analyze what it will mean to him. Plenty of others will be all too happy to fill that role.


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Posted by Caroline 01/24/2011 at 12:49 PM

Well, I doubt if any of the analysts will describe Stan's game as balletic. He's kinda chunky isn't he:)

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 12:50 PM

Allez, Fed!

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 12:50 PM

Send him home to the missus.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 12:51 PM

From the last thread -

Caroline -well, Roger was asked about it by Courier and he didn't seem to take out of turn. In that Eurosport interview he giggled at how angry Tommy was because Fed reflex blocked a very good body serve back into play and then hit a FH winner on the next shot.

Fed is no Roddick when it comes to cracking wise - though occasionally he gets off a good line, "Have you ever seen me play before?" from his Tommy presser was pretty good... but I think he is among the very easiest to amuse and make giggle. I bet he is wicked tickle averse.

And speaking of that presser, and bias and all...last night Typebad was perfectly happy to let me C&P lines from Roddick's presser but wouldn't let me post anything from Fed's presser. See! This conspiracy grows ever vaster!!!

Pfft. Tigress - been paying attention lately? Cilic has been playing poorly since LAST year's AO. It did not require minionism to lose badly to Rafa. He has been losing badly...including to people he should easily defeat...for quite some time now. Rafa was just 'NEXT!' Cilic's serve is stunningly bad for a man of his height.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 12:57 PM

Fed is really going to have to play much better tahn he has so far to beat Stan. Fed last two matches have been so-so. He is also 5 years old and will be the more tired of the two, mentally and physically. He will likely have less desire too. And imagine after that he (if he gets lucky) may have Bird to play. Ouch!

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 12:58 PM

um careful big apple - Fed is the only one with a 'missus' at the moment.

Sherlock - what you asked about Stan and nerves. Interesting question. Against the top guys, OLD Stan would often play one, one and half, VERY good sets. And then under some pressure on his own serve, he would wobble and usually pretty much collapse. NEW Stan seems to do that much less. Though even in his last match with Fed, he stormed through the first set and then pretty much left the building. He did seem a little nervous closing out Andy...and Andy helped by being Andy...but I think that that mental part of his game is something that Lungren has really been working on with him. And if Fed is, whatever reasons, feeling sub Fed, it could well be a very long night. I don' think he necessarily needs TMF to beat even the New Stan...but he sure as hail better bring Fed and leave Fred and Ferd at home to mind the twins. (Though come to think of it, Fred and Ferd would probably mess that up too...let the twins finger paint on the hotel carpet and put random items down the toilet.)

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 12:59 PM

5 years older.

5 years old in dog years.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 12:59 PM

the big apple - Fed is 5 year old?? Aw, but they are so cute at that age. lol.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 01:00 PM

Cl, that is true! True!

So...send him back to the "ex-missus"

Are Stan's divorce legalities already in place?

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 01:00 PM

thebigapple- jeejee

Posted by Matt Zemek 01/24/2011 at 01:01 PM

Pete has this puppy (the match, not Wawrinka) sized up exactly right.

Wawrinka will strut his stuff, but fail to close the sale.

But it's going to be a pulse-pounding, stomach-churning rollercoaster ride of fear for Fed fans.

Federer, 6-7, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

Gulp.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 01:01 PM

2 is cute.

By 5, they need regular spankings/time outs. (if that is allowed in your culture)

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 01:03 PM

BTW - there is a school of thought that says Stan actually carried Roger for part of their Gold Medal doubles win. i didn't see the match but some people felt they did what good doubles teams do - play especially well when their partner is going through a dicey patch. I think Stan volleyed way above his pay grade during that match.

Posted by Pierre 01/24/2011 at 01:06 PM

You can't predict how a player A will do against opponent D based on how opponent D played against players B and C.

Posted by Master Ace 01/24/2011 at 01:08 PM

My Turn Open Tuesday Order of Play on Rod Laver Arena:

7 PM(Monday) : Petkovic vs Li
8:30 PM(Monday) : Wawrinka vs Federer - Wozniacki vs Schiavone
3:30 AM : Berdych vs Djokovic

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 01:08 PM

"But it's going to be a pulse-pounding, stomach-churning rollercoaster ride of fear for Fed fans.

Federer, 6-7, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4."

I don't think I can survive another five setter. Haven't recovered from Simon yet. But then again, I survived FO 2009.

I hope there are no beatdowns in that match. Wouldn't like Fed to win in straight sets, and wouldn't like Stan to win in straight sets (the prob. is extremely low for that) either, especially because Stan is just hitting form.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 01:09 PM

Really?

Based on how Rafa Nadal (D)plays against Roger Federer (B)and Andy Murray (C), I am sure he would beat me (A) soundly in a tennis match.

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 01:11 PM

I think Stan is only separated..not divorced.

Posted by CPM 01/24/2011 at 01:17 PM

Matt,

I agree with your prediction of the result, but I predict there'll be one set lopsided to Stan -- The Musty Ferd will show up for a bit, hand over a couple breaks, and Manislas (I like that nickname, btw) will have a 6-2/6-3 set to hang on his mantle.

Posted by Caroline 01/24/2011 at 01:19 PM

If Stan does manage to close out Roger, the first thing Roger should do is commit to DC. Roger is not an idiot:) and might perhaps have noticed that Stan has problems closing. You wouldn't want to slog your guts out all the way to a DC final only for Stan to be not so much the Man. But if he can close out a really big match, well maybe he's ready for DC.

So hard to judge relative form until players face each other. Monfils was awful and Andy was even worse. I was actually shocked at how weak his groundstrokes looked compared to Stan's. Robredo on the other hand looked pretty good to me.

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 01:22 PM

The problem with the Davis Cup for Roger and Stan are not the singles matches...but having to play five setters three days in a row. They don't have a doubles team, so either one might have to show up for doubles. And then it complicates the singles matches on the third day.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 01:23 PM

"So hard to judge relative form until players face each other. Monfils was awful and Andy was even worse. I was actually shocked at how weak his groundstrokes looked compared to Stan's."

Caroline: That's why I'm not frazzling about Roger's chances against Stan. I think Roger will win in either 3 or 4 sets.

Posted by Nam1 01/24/2011 at 01:23 PM

"By 5, they need regular spankings/time outs. (if that is allowed in your culture)"

Why spankings? I dont get it. Why would anyone hit a 5 year old? How bad could they be to be slapped?

Posted by Matt Zemek 01/24/2011 at 01:24 PM

Wawrinka enjoyed some brief moments of "I-am-with-Fed-I-am-EEN-VEEN-CEE-BULL" tennis, particularly in the gold medal match, but Federer did the vast majority of the heavy lifting, especially against the Bryans in the semis.

Wawrinka's great achievement in the Beijing doubles was that he didn't flinch in money situations. The first-set tiebreak against the Bryans was the hill Fedrinka had to climb. Once that brotherly alpine summit was conquered, the rest was Swiss history.

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 01:29 PM

For Fed fans,

Fed is going to go to Ethiopia next month.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/tennis/theres-only-one-roger-federer-20100129-n26k.html

Posted by linex 01/24/2011 at 01:31 PM

Probably this is match as many featuring Rafa or Roger is a lot about the other player's frame of mind entering into the match. Does he want to beat Roger, does he believe he can do it in this context quarters of a Slam? Wanting the win and believing in it is the first step the second one is for STan to show his best tennis. While Roger may win matches when playing short of his best, the same does not apply for his opponents when facing him. I guess the Simon match was good practice for this match, Roger needs to attack the net when possible as Stan is solid from the back and likes to grind. Stan though has a better serve than Simon.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 01:31 PM

"Wawrinka's great achievement in the Beijing doubles was that he didn't flinch in money situations."

Matt - well then it makes it particularly interesting that he proceeded to spend the next 2 years on tour flinching a lot. (W/the exception of his 'honeymoon' win over Fed in Monte Carlo.) So sometimes...often perhaps...what happens at the Olympics stays in the Olympics. N. Massu, (sp?) anyone?

Posted by Arun 01/24/2011 at 01:33 PM

ladyjulia: That was from last year. :)

Posted by noleisthebest 01/24/2011 at 01:33 PM

I don't know why, but I think Federer is going to demolish Stan .

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 01:34 PM

Arun,

Oh shoot...I thought today was Jan 29th...i didn't pay attention to the year.

Sorry...for old news.

Posted by linex 01/24/2011 at 01:35 PM

Does anyone know why it is so hard to find good youtube videos with the highlights of the matches of this year's Aussie Open. I wanted to watch some of Radwanska's match of yesterday for example but I did not find highlights of her match.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 01:36 PM

WHEW!

Posted by Heidi 01/24/2011 at 01:37 PM

I've never heard anything but that Fed carried that doubles team to victory in the first few rounds, after which Stan woke up and they started that weird celebration where Fed would warm his hands over Stan because he was "on fire." Regardless, I think it'll either be a titanic battle or really, really anticlimactic.

And I'm definitely with everyone who never thought the Tall Croatian had a chance. Talk about not yet fulfilling your potential... as Pete said, it's an epidemic. That's why I always had so much respect for Courier as a champion. He used to say himself that he didn't have much talent but he was sure going to do everything he could to maximize it. I think he'll be a good DC captain.

Posted by Frank 01/24/2011 at 01:38 PM

Stan was on against Roddick, but everyone who beats Roddick has inflated stats, as Pat McEnroe suggested during the match. Roddick didn't play very well at all, and Stan looked pretty comfortable in the heat, even returning Roddick's heater serves.
Even if Stan plays at a similar level tonight, Federer is not Roddick, and Federer isn't going to continue slugging it out on the baseline if it's not working - he'll come to the net and do something about it.
Either way, Stan certainly has had a better backhand at the Open so far, we'll see if that continues. If Fed starts shanking backhands left and right, look out.
Fed in 3.

Posted by Arun 01/24/2011 at 01:38 PM

CL: Exactly my feelings. ;)

ladyjulia: No worries. :)

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 01:38 PM

linex: Tennis Australia usually makes youtube to take down clips involving the current tournament. That's what happened last year. In a few months, they will be allowed to be uploaded.

Posted by Andrew 01/24/2011 at 01:41 PM

Morning, all.

I think the premise of Pete's post is spot on - that for the foreseeable future it'll be very hard, at a psychic level, to discuss Federer without thinking of Nadal, and vice versa.

In terms of conventional wisdom, Nadal is roughly where Federer was in 2007, and Federer is where Nadal was at that time: in other words, Nadal is seen as being the dominant player, for whom losses come as a surprise, while Federer is seen as his main threat, but who's more likely to come up short. And, as Pete writes, the early round matches have reinforced this narrative.

Note that I described this as conventional wisdom, rather than my own views. I think what's going on is much more multifaceted, and shouldn't be shoehorned into conventional narratives - such as age-related decline, or hires a net-rusher, so attack at all costs.

Turning to today's match, I thought before R16 that Wawrinka would be a more dangerous opponent (if Federer got past Robredo) than Roddick would be. Wawrinka manhandled Federer in set 1 on a faster court in Stockholm, and was up a break in set 2. Both players were playing very close to the baseline. Federer wasn't playing badly; his opponent was playing superbly. You can, if you wish, follow my match call (and other TWers' thoughts) here:

http://blogs.tennis.com/tennisworld/2010/10/vacation-message/comments/page/6/#comments

It makes me giggle to recall that Federer got Wawrinka out of whatever zone he was in by hitting moonballs galore - but that's exactly what Tommy Robredo did two days ago to Federer. When your opponent is teeing off on everything in the strike zone, keep away from the strike zone....

Maybe the Stan Wawrinka that will show up today will be able to keep doing what he did to Roddick, but it was apparent that Andy saw the danger he was in, but couldn't get out of the trap:

Q. Last changeover you were in the chair shaking your head. What are you thinking at that time?

ANDY RODDICK: Matt touched on that. I was frustrated. Couldn't get the rallies to go my way. I was trying to stand up in the court and, you know, I just felt when I adjusted my positioning up in the court he was opening up the lines and making it a shorter line if that makes sense.

I didn't have the ability to run back. Conditions were colder, so slice wasn't really working. I wasn't able to get the ball to jump much, so a lot of the shots he hit were in his pocket and I was having a hard time getting it out of that zone.

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2011-01-23/201101241295788705276.html


I think Federer has a few more tools in his kit bag than Roddick, and he knows Wawrinka's game inside out. Plus, you don't get to 22 GS finals without understanding how to cool off a hot opponent. Big chance for Warinka to make a statement, of course, but I'd be surpeised if Federer didn't fancy his own chances.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 01:45 PM

Nam1, see the article below from the USA. How people define children and punishment varies widely.


Judge: Boy, 12, will be tried as adult in double homicide
HOMICIDE


March 29, 2010|By the CNN Wire Staff


Kenzie Houk was shot to death in her Wampum, Pennsylvania, home. She was 26 and pregnant.A judge in Pennsylvania has denied a request from a 12-year-old homicide suspect to have his case transferred to juvenile court.

Jordan Brown is facing adult charges in the February 2009 shooting death of his father's pregnant girlfriend, and a judge turned down a petition to have the case transferred from criminal to juvenile court.

Police have said the boy, then 11, shot Kenzie Marie Houk, who was eight months' pregnant, once at point-blank range in her farmhouse in western Pennsylvania.

Posted by Aube,Venus,wise move baby and the future will be brighter!!! 01/24/2011 at 01:53 PM

Federer is not going to loose to anyone until the final...
Wawrinka himself knows he can not beat Roger in this tournament!!!

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 01:56 PM

Well, THERE's a nice tangent.

Andrew - interesting and soothing analysis.

Here's one that may be a little less of each. When Fed gave his pre tourney interview, (I think it was in the context of bringing Annacone on board.), Roger said something along the lines of, and I paraphrase 'cause I am too lazy to go find the interview...' I am really happy with the way my team is working out. I know I am doing the right things for my game. No matter what happens at the AO, that won't change.' Or words to that effect.

NOT that I don't think Roger wants very badly to win here. Terribly. Ferociously. Hail, he may even cry if he doesn't. But sometime when I have seen Fed on court at this AO, its like he has the 40 mile stare. And not in a bad way, really. His lapses seem less triggered by trips to Mirkaland or Twinsville, than trips to a future where all the things that he and Annacone have been working on will click into place. (Of course he really only need look BACK to the WTF and Doha to see that.)

I hasten to add that this is PURELY a sense on my part, and since I am often full of NONsense, I am probably totally wrong and just seeing things.

And in any case, GO FED!! As Marina/BJK used to say, 'Stay in the NOW!'

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 01:58 PM

Yes, that bothers me a bit as well. Fed seems detached.

Posted by Sherlock 01/24/2011 at 02:00 PM

What Pierre said at 1:06. :)

It's easy for me not to frazzle, but I think Rog will raise his game again today, and the WTF Fed will come out. And no, that's not "what the ****". :)

He knew he could coast a bit the last two matches, and he did. Rog in 3 sets, two of them very tight, maybe tiebreaks.

Posted by TeamNadal 01/24/2011 at 02:02 PM

Night 8 Interviews.....I wish I could find a vid of Rafa's entire interview!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XevN-dO9eJ0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 02:05 PM

thebigapple - yeah..that's a good word - 'detached.' Not disinterested, really, but 'detached.'

Sort of like, "hmmm... I wonder what will happen in I do this? Interesting! And THIS?"

But he may well find all sorts of attachment and focus in this later round. Roger really doesn't like playing he fellow Swissies...but, in the end, it rarely keeps him from beating them.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 02:06 PM

Federer has to be the most psycho-analysed player in the history of tennis.

Posted by linex 01/24/2011 at 02:09 PM

So if as Andrew points out Roger tries to cool off Stan in the first stages of the match, it will be a matter of Stan believing in his game in the way he has been playing so far and in bringing his A game to the table for the rest of the match and see what happens. Tennis is a mind's game undoubtedly. And to win against Roger or Rafa you need to be relentless and play well from start to finish.

Posted by deeps 01/24/2011 at 02:10 PM

wilson75: Or Fed is the first big tennis star of the internet age.

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 02:10 PM

"Federer has to be the most psycho-analysed player in the history of tennis."

Not surprising...why would one not psycho-analyze a player who reached 23 SF consecutively some time in his career?

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 02:12 PM

And what deeps said...:-)

Posted by TMFunk 01/24/2011 at 02:12 PM

ladyjulia - No worries, I never tire of worship at the Fed altar. Besides, we may need it as comfort-read one of these days :)

CL - From the last thread @ 12:35pm: "It did not require minionism to lose badly to Rafa" - ok, with all due respect for your linguistic skills, I respectfully disagree. It should be minionhood, not minionism.

Posted by Kristy 01/24/2011 at 02:12 PM

True, wilson75. We study every tiny tilt in his expressions, and it's not easy because his face basically stays in one position when he's on court.

I'm also always trying to analyze the shape of his head and its mysterious, almost regal-seeming grace and beauty. I know it sounds over the top (and anyway I'm a Roddick fan) but Fed does seem like a fabled figure from the past, like Michelangelo's David walking among us.

Posted by Yawning Melbournian 01/24/2011 at 02:13 PM

As good as Stan's match stats looked, Monfils mentally checked out after 1st set and Roddick was never a threat, sorry Roddick fans but it looked like Stan just knew he could casually chip back that serve and then wait for the right ball for the kill with the way Roddick was seemingly just pushing that ball around the other night. But even then Roddick had a couple of looks at breakpoint without doing anything too spectacular.

The thing to look out for Fed in this match are those weird mental lapses that probably wouldn't have mattered even if he had them back a few years ago but that are costing him now. Fed seems to be well aware of this so it will be interesting to see what he and his new coach (with the experience of working with the aging Pete Sampras) will do to remain focussed but aggressive at the same time over the course of a 5 setter.

I do think Fed is on as much of a mission as Stan, actually more than Stan in this tournament (being Rafa-Slam and all) and it's the 2nd week afterall so Fed fans should be hopeful he wins this one without the fuss of the Simon match.

But it ain't over til the fat lady sings... interesting matches coming up...

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,Rafa Is My Sweaty Champion AO 2011! 01/24/2011 at 02:13 PM

Good Morning Everyone,

Well we are now into the quarter final stage of the AO.

Great matches today in both the men and woman.

I have been watching Stan in this GS to me he has become more consistant in his ground stroking and yes that back hand has been on fire.Today he comes up against a player in Roger who I feel has to many weapons and vairety in his game.I expect a Roger win.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 02:14 PM

Recently Nadal's sweat generated quite a few comments, you know. And he only has 9.

Posted by Ren (17 would be lovely) 01/24/2011 at 02:15 PM

Hope my wishful thinking of 17, won't remain in the unconscious of Federer.

Pete, well written article. Stan does not have those shanking bh shots like Fed. However, Fed have more weapons. Unless those BH of Stan will be zooming like guided missiles, Fed stands a better chance still.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 02:16 PM

deeps: That too.

Ladyjulia: Too many people, fans and media presume to know what Federer is thinking and feeling come up with ridiculous theories. Too much time is spent on this instead of enjoying the tennis.

Posted by Ren (17 would be lovely) 01/24/2011 at 02:16 PM

have=has
shucks!

Posted by Ro'ee 01/24/2011 at 02:18 PM

somebody should really start counting forced errors. because playing a speedster like Simon, Fed was never going to rack up the winners.
In general, "unforced errors" and "winners" are very bad indicators, anyway.
what should concern the Fedophiles is the way Stan's looked, and not what his stat sheet said.
and about Stan's BH being the best in the business: a few years ago in Oz someone said that about Youzhny, and Sire Jacket tore it apart.
Same thing said about Gasquet at Wimby a few years ago, and Fed put on a backhand clinic.

Posted by TMFunk 01/24/2011 at 02:18 PM

CL @ 1:56pm - I have had that sense for a while now for the same reason, but voiced them not for fear of being burnt at the stake. Fed's comments about this AO have usually ended with phrases like "lets see how it goes", "if I win great, if I don't someone else was better than me" and so on. Fed, when he is feeling motivated to win, typically has made that clear in the past, not in a chest-beating fashion, but with comments like "I like my chances to win here". None of that this AO. Ah well, maybe reading too much into too little...

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 02:18 PM

TMFunk...LOL.

Kristy,

"I'm also always trying to analyze the shape of his head and its mysterious, almost regal-seeming grace and beauty. I know it sounds over the top (and anyway I'm a Roddick fan) but Fed does seem like a fabled figure from the past, like Michelangelo's David walking among us. "

LOL...that was funny :-)

Posted by Ren (17 would be lovely) 01/24/2011 at 02:18 PM

hi there, AM! (paying my courtesy call)

Posted by observer 01/24/2011 at 02:20 PM

Yes, all good matches and I'm def worried for Fed.

On a lighter note, anyone who checks the tennis.com fantasy tennis (which I highly recommend in the future, btw... it was much less time-consuming and has been more fun than the SP for me by far, what with it not being sudden death and all) may notice Maria's Next Top Models faring quite well on the men's fantasy AO side. 34/1100-some, and tied for 12th in the US still!

Despite picking Milos with my heart instead of Ferrer with my head. Picking Dolly and Stan in my 8 person team has helped tremendously.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 02:20 PM

TMFunk: I think you are reading too much into too little. BTW, if he had said "I like my chances to win" he would've been accused of being arrogant and smug.

Posted by deeps 01/24/2011 at 02:21 PM

Hi AM,

Hope everything is fine. Who do you pick in Nole vs Berdych? I pick Nole in 4. I think he will make Big Bird pay for not being able to move.

Posted by Andrew 01/24/2011 at 02:21 PM

CL: re your 1:56pm - here's Paul Annacone from a nice NYT article by Christopher Clarey -

“I think it’s hard because you know when the bar is set so high people tend to get sensationalistic about what’s going on, and I think it’s my job to kind of help keep that perspective,” Annacone said. “Roger’s a great player, and he’s been playing well since August, and if he wins in Australia, great. And if he doesn’t, that’s fine. There’s nothing broken yet. He’s feeling good. His game is progressing. We’re working on themes and we kind of just have to keep looking at it that way, but it’s tough because you set a pretty high bar.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/24/sports/tennis/24annacone.html


I very much like the idea that Annacone, Luthi and Federer have identified themes to work on - maybe four or five groupings of ideas to be worked on over an 18 month period.

This team is uniquely equipped to take the long view. There's no sense retooling Federer's game around kamikaze-style net rushes if that approach is going to fall apart the first time Federer steps onto a clay court in 2011.

In the event Federer doesn't defend his AO title - and you'd be a mug, or a love is blind KAD, to think that the odds he would retain the title are greater than 50:50 - you have to expect that the media feeding frenzy will be insane. It will reinforce the conventional wisdom narrative that I wrote about above - to the power of three if Nadal does complete the Rafa Slam (FWIW, the chances of this are also, I think, below 50:50).

Instead, I've always wanted to see Federer have a plan in place to improve, and the results which show that the plan can succeed. Right now, I'm very hopeful.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,Rafa Is My Sweaty Champion AO 2011! 01/24/2011 at 02:25 PM

deeps

Hi!

I think Nole will win against Tomas.Its also a night match *ducks*.I feel
like you Nole will expose Tomas's lack of movement.Nole has been playing well.

Posted by CWATC 01/24/2011 at 02:25 PM

Lol, wilson.

I feel a pull to join this conversation as psycho-analyzing the Fed is my hobby, but don't have too much to add to what's been said. Agree he hasn't seemed exactly "on a mission" this AO and my hopes are not high. As long as he's mentally prepared for a loss and can still go on to have a great year, it's all good as far as I'm concerned. Just hope that's the case; the d--m "confidence" seems awfully easily frightened away these past few years.

To add to some frazzle, according to rf.com he only practiced about 20 minutes yesterday, at least in public. Energizer bunny he is not this tourney.

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 02:25 PM

wilson75,

"Ladyjulia: Too many people, fans and media presume to know what Federer is thinking and feeling come up with ridiculous theories. Too much time is spent on this instead of enjoying the tennis."

Its just fun...after all, even the Fed has fun with it. After AO 2009, journos reflected lengthily on all those salty tears and the causes behind them...Fed read them...and then at the next tourney, got to say "You all got it wrong".

I mean, look at the amount of printed words spent on Nadal's sweats. Dude had flu 3 weeks ago if i am not mistaken. And normally, I would think sweating was good if one was under the weather...but one learns new things everyday while reading sports in the media.

So, its just conversation all in the end...we all like to speculate about tears, sweat or...blood (now that Dolgo is a legitimate threat to the top 10).

Posted by Tuulia 01/24/2011 at 02:26 PM

TeamNadal, here you go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWAkDAszxbo

He's such a flirt.
Was before, but just getting worse... or should I say better? :)

Posted by TMFunk 01/24/2011 at 02:26 PM

"BTW, if he had said "I like my chances to win" he would've been accused of being arrogant and smug." - Well, at least that would be consistent. I like predictability you know. :) In all seriousness, you are right, and he's probably taking a page out of Rafa's "1001 ways to lower expectations" guide for superstar tennis dummies.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 02:26 PM

wilson - fair enough...but where would TW be without arm chair psychologists? About 1,000 hits, per tourney, short, that's where.

TMFunk...I bow to your correct suffixism. And those are the kind of Fed comments I was referring too. OTH, he came into the '10 FO saying he was prepared to defend his championship and THAT didn't work out so well. Just have to wait and see.

Ro'ee - why you sound just like the great man himself. In his post Tommy presser Fed said the Wiiners/UFE stat didn't interest him much. For a variety of reasons. Not all of them 'denial.' lol. IIRC, he did say one stat that he thought was import was second serve returns.

Posted by Ren (17 would be lovely) 01/24/2011 at 02:27 PM

This would be an exciting night...LI in straight sets; Fed in 4.

Posted by Ivo 01/24/2011 at 02:28 PM

This was a good article, good observations..especially in the first half. Never though about it that way but it's true.

Posted by Yawning Melbournian 01/24/2011 at 02:28 PM

By the way - So happy that it's been 65 comments into a thread with Fed and Rafa mentioned in the article and no idiot has started a Fed-bash/Fedal war!

*tears welling in eyes*

hope this keeps up!

Posted by ladyjulia 01/24/2011 at 02:29 PM

"and he's probably taking a page out of Rafa's "1001 ways to lower expectations" guide for superstar tennis dummies."

TMFunk,

I think you are quite right over there. The more i read his pressers and watch his interviews, the more he seems to do as above.

Posted by Fed the Crybaby/Rafa the Puny server fan 01/24/2011 at 02:30 PM

Ren's alter ego: 10 would be very lovely. he he he.

Posted by Kristy 01/24/2011 at 02:34 PM

Haha, Yawning Melbournian.

The reason I think Fed will beat Stan is, the trend is for the hotshot challenger-out-of-nowhere has been to play brilliantly to a certain point and then go down in straight sets. Meltzer, Tomic, anyone?

Posted by Kombo 01/24/2011 at 02:34 PM

It may not help Stan that his last match was with Roddick who plays much more passively and at a much slower rhythm than Fed.

Fred looks a little listless, hopefully TMF shows up.

Posted by Kristy 01/24/2011 at 02:35 PM

Oops, sorry for mangled grammar.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 02:40 PM

CWATC: Roger wouldn't fly himself and his family all the way to Australia if he didn't want to win AO.

Posted by Genuine Realist 01/24/2011 at 02:42 PM

I have been a little annoyed at the succession of day matches Fed has had. It occurs to me, however, that these may be a concession to American television, since the day matches show up at easily viewable times, particularly on the West Coast.

The tide surges towards a semi-final of the Big Four, with 3 and 4 in noticeably better form than the 1 and 2. Interesting.

Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) 01/24/2011 at 02:44 PM

Hello TWibe,

I've caught up with all the matches now. I don't think that Fed fans should worry too much about Stan, 'cos he is not going to beat Roger anytime soon IMHO.

Posted by CWATC 01/24/2011 at 02:45 PM

Of course he WANTS to win, wilson75.

As I've repeated like a broken record for weeks, I think he's mentally worn out.

Which doesn't mean he can't catch a second wind; next match would be a good time for it, it if comes :)

Posted by Samantha Elin 01/24/2011 at 02:47 PM

In speaking on one of the greatest and profound tragedies to strike in the 21Century, the hack tennis writer Matt Cronin said, "The world will never know how great she could have been."He was talking about Maria's injury and what a lost it was to the world. Right up there with 9-11. I can't remember the last time I read such objective journalism.

Posted by profit AWS 01/24/2011 at 02:48 PM

stan is going down in straight sets, this will be a slaughter with Fed's new tactics. Plus, Stan has a huge mental block against Federer.

Posted by TeamNadal 01/24/2011 at 02:48 PM

Thank you Tuulia, I really appreciate it ;)

Posted by timm 01/24/2011 at 02:49 PM

oh please. Andy Roddick has a small, small game, cause other than his serve, he's basically a batting-practice robot.

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 02:49 PM

Andrew - thanks for that link.. yes, there seems to be a fair amount of 'big picture' viewing from the Fed camp. Tough on us instant gratification types, but if I can see as far as they see I also like what I see. ;-))

Posted by TGiT 01/24/2011 at 02:50 PM

Every player is hot until they are not.

Bodo picked Sod to win and anyone would have said Sod is going to beat that new unproven kid from Ukraine.

Sod lost.

We can say that Djoko and Berdych are hot players right now. But by tomorrow morning one ain't gonna be hot.

I think people are so reflexive if Fed loses a set(s) and still wins it is just crazy.

As much as Stan knows about Fed, Fed knows about Stan.

A day match is not going to help Stan. The ball will fly and Rog is going to push the Stan forehand side. Yeah, Stan will get to the ball but so will Roger and Roger is much faster.

I expect to see alot of net rushing but both players are playing well enough to win. No easy predictions.

Posted by thebigapple 01/24/2011 at 02:51 PM

"The world will never know how great she could have been DESPITE BEING SUCH CLUMSY, POOR MOVER and A SHRIEKING ANNOYANCE ON THE COURT."

That is actually what he meant to say.

Posted by wilson75 01/24/2011 at 02:52 PM

CWATC: I wouldn't know if Roger is mentally worn out and I'm not going to spend time wondering if he is.

Posted by timm 01/24/2011 at 02:54 PM

also, Monfils is the Michael Vick of tennis - all flash but nothing there to consistently compete with the big boys. Wawrinka has reached the end of the road..

Posted by Yawning Melbournian 01/24/2011 at 02:54 PM

I'm kinda thinking that Fed has found a new, sort of zen state of calmness in the outcome of GS's. He must have now gotten used to the idea that he is now on the hunt to chase Rafa in the rankings, not the other way round and that's why his pressers reflect that new outlook, which I think is very positive and keeps fans hopeful that he will play for longer. Guessing good mental therapy from Paul Annacone who has seen it all in Pete S, plus a healthy dose of cutey kisses and hugs from the twins helps with that!

But that fire of wanting to win this AO burns like a house on fire inside, otherwise he for sure could not have gotten out of that Simon 5 setter alive who was playing lights out and had all the momentum going to the 5th set.

But the very fact that he's still training as hard as he can, with a new coach and trying to groove the new game plan speaks for itself - he wants this title bad and he's not going to just give it to anyone, someone has to rip it out from him.

Btw this Fed psycho analysing thread is rather fun :>

Posted by Tennislover (Adores Federer& Nadal both) 01/24/2011 at 02:55 PM

Hi, first time logging on.... Slowly dying! want both to win for different reasons, so I'm sitting back to enjoy the journey for as long as it lasts.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,Rafa Is My Sweaty Champion AO 2011! 01/24/2011 at 02:57 PM

Welcome to TW Tennislover

Posted by Payne DeButt 01/24/2011 at 03:03 PM


Dude you seriously need to either take a break from writing or the hallucinogenics. Maybe you could read some Hemingway, realize you don't need all the extra fluff and just write.

Posted by Ren (17 would be lovely) 01/24/2011 at 03:04 PM

Did Master Ace post the schedules of matches on ESPN, ET?

Posted by CL 01/24/2011 at 03:05 PM

Tennislover - which 'both'? And welcome by the way.

Aw, wilson, now your just being persnickity. Not that there is anything wrong with that!! ;-))

Posted by CWATC 01/24/2011 at 03:09 PM

I see wilson75 thinks I over-psychoanalyze which is fine :)

Really in this case it's not about any special ticket to the brain of Fed; just my gripe that most normal humans would be worn out w/ the schedule he's had the past few months.

His opening PC when asked about how his prep is going he muttered sth about "trying to rest."

Anyway, enough D&G from me for now; looking forward to tonite, should be an interesting match. And should Stan take it, I'll be cheering for him to go all the way -

That said, I'd rather not see the gloating Lundgren; "I've now coached two guys to take out Roger in AO" ha, ha, what a great coach am I.

Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) 01/24/2011 at 03:10 PM

TennisLover,

Hi and welcome !

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