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Shot of Dreams 02/01/2012 - 5:53 PM

by Pete Bodo

Can a single point, or series of points, have a career-shaping influence on a player? Guillermo Coria might say so, for he'll forever wonder what might have been had he converted either of those two match points he held against Gaston Gaudio in the 2004 French Open final. You'll remember that the loss appeared to have a devastating effect on Coria, and played a role in driving him into a premature retirement.

Andy Roddick also might think so, looking back on that volley he missed on set point in the second-set tiebreaker of his 2009 Wimbledon final against Roger Federer. Had he made that shot, Roddick would have been up two-sets-to-none on a day when his serve was outstanding. Instead, Federer went on to win the tiebreaker and the match, 16-14 in the fifth. It was Grand Slam No. 15 for Federer; for Roddick, for whom winning even one Wimbledon would be a career-capping triumph, it was a fourth loss there to Rog. Three of those painful defeats were in finals.

PicThat raises the question, will Rafael Nadal be permanently marked by that critical, backhand miss in the Australian Open final a few days ago? You know the point: Rafa, mounting a furious fightback, broke Nadal Djokovic to take a 4-2 lead in the fifth set. Serving the next game, he made a forehand inside-out winner to go up 15-0. Djokovic then tagged a second-serve cross-court service-return winner. 15-all. But Rafa replied with a service winner to Djokovic's vaunted backhand for a 30-15 lead. It was the 11th time he won the point in the last 12 attempts when Rafa put his first serve into play.

During the next point, though, Rafa hit a weak drop volley that Djokovic chased down. But he wasn't able to do much with it, and Nadal had a great look at a backhand down-the-line pass. He missed it, plain and simple. It was a critical error that made many in the crowd gasp. Instead of 40-15, it was 30-all.

The miss had an immediate, painful impact. After it, Nadal surrendered the game with two quick forehand errors. Worse yet, he lapsed back into defensive mode in the very next game, which Djokovic ran off at love to level the match at 4-all. 

"Well, with the 4-2 was advantage because I felt very well physically in the moment," Nadal said afterward. "I felt with very positive energy, and I played a fantastic first point of the 4-2 with the forehand winner down the line after he had that return. . . It's true I had big mistake with 30-15. But it's not the (right) moment to think about that. That's just another moment in an almost six hours match.  Forget about that, knowing that I really had real, very real chances to have the title and to win against a player who I lost (to) six times last year."

That has to be the way Nadal looks at it, but at the same time it makes you wonder what might flicker in his mind if he ever finds himself in a comparable situation with Djokovic in the future. There's no way to know about that until it happens, and you can bet that should a similar point be played by these two in the future, somebody will remember what happened last Sunday, and make a point of asking the players about it.

But remember, even if Rafa had made that pass, it doesn't mean that he would have gone on hold, never mind win the match. Not any more than a conversion of that backhand volley by Roddick would have automatically resulted in a win over Federer.

In the quote two paragraphs up, you'll notice the ellipses marks indicating that some text was removed. Here's what I took out because it wasn't terribly relevant at the moment (it also jumps off the transcript as something like a unfiltered, spontaneous observation that Nadal couldn't suppress, or wait any longer to make):

"Is something unbelievable how he returns, no?  His return probably is one of the best of the history. That's my opinion, no? I never played against a player who's able to return like this. Almost every time."

A Nadal fan might be moved to wince by the obvious note of awe in that remark, but I think it's a net plus for Rafa when it comes to weighing the potential long-term impact of that seventh game. If you reinsert that passage and re-read the entire quote, you can see that Nadal's analysis includes an appropriate respect for, and acceptance of, Djokovic's returning skills, as well as a tempered evaluation of the place of that game in the grand scheme of things.

In other words, Nadal probably won't be haunted by that backhand miss. He feels the game was about Djokovic's returning skill. The next time they meet, Nadal will be less likely to fret about missing a similar shot or opportunity than about what Djokovic's return skills demand of his serve game. 

Great players have short memories. If Nadal loses any sleep over this match, it's unlikely to be over that missed backhand pass.


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Posted by Blue moon 02/01/2012 at 06:03 PM

"Rafa, mounting a furious fightback, broke Nadal Djokovic to take a 4-2 lead in the fifth set."

Rafa was able to break Nadal Djokovic?! Man, that Rafa is one hell of a fighter!

Posted by pro 02/01/2012 at 06:04 PM

first

Posted by Blue moon 02/01/2012 at 06:06 PM

More seriously, though, interesting article. I do think Rafa will only be haunted by it in his dreams, and maybe not even that-- not in his play, anyway.

Posted by Maybe 02/01/2012 at 06:10 PM

Rafa will be fine. He's a better player than Coria and Roddick.

On a different note, I'm a pretty big Fed fan and during his 09 Wimbledon final with Roddick, I found myself at ease with the concept that Roddick could well have won that match. I think I'm in the minority because I actually like Roddick.

Posted by Nam1 02/01/2012 at 06:16 PM

Ok, lets get over the idea that Rafa is the kind of person who is "haunted" by anything!

Otherwise, he would have been frozen against Soderling at FO 2010!


Posted by Arif 02/01/2012 at 06:18 PM

It was 2004 French open final and not 2005

Posted by Lucky Strike 02/01/2012 at 06:18 PM

Rafa also commented in his post match presser on the unlikelihood of the love-40 game comeback of his own in the 4th immediately after he was asked about missing the backhand wide at 4-2. In brief he downplayed the importance of the single pt. I can't help but feel, though, that if Rafa had gone up 5-2 in the fifth that Nole would NOT have come back to win the match. Impossible to say, of course. But Nole's body language had gone completely negative until Rafa missed that bh wide.

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:21 PM

by Pete Bodo

Can a single point, or series of points, have a career-shaping influence on a player?
--------------
Absolutely NOT!

Remember that AO Final when Novak won over Tsonga?..Now look how Novak's career has turned to be and where is Tsonga's.
From bigger point of some Universal view and all this time, we clearly see that Tsonga then by any case couldn't won that match,..and even if he won nothing latter wouldn't be affected by it.

The only thing what's count is work, dedication, will, character and for that matter Champion Personality behind it.

Someone can 'upset',...but in long run doesn't mean anything
You can not win 7 strait finals against someone as Rafa with stories woulda, shoulda, coulda

Posted by DJB 02/01/2012 at 06:23 PM

Andy Roddick is hardly a good example he was a long shot to even get to the final that year, and had to play the best tennis of his life to beat murray and push fed to five sets. Its not as if anyone really expected him to win more slams if he had only made that shot.

In terms of Nadal I could have gone along with that until hearing his comments after the match, he was so positive even after losing a slam final. I think the W 2007 inal still hurts him the most of any defeats and we all know how he turned that around the year after.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 06:25 PM

Pete

I was there 'live' at that match

Rafa's serve also let him down apart from that b/hand

Regardless I was soo impressed with Rafa and remember he did have BP when Nole was serving for the match

A Player has to Move On after any dedeat...if not they are doomed.

Knowing Rafa as I do after all the years I have followed him.He will take the positives from that match and move forward.I have always admired his 'work ethic'.

Posted by Moe 02/01/2012 at 06:25 PM

Nadal can win everything and beat down whoever he want if "things went well".
He can go south faster than anybody if "things didn't went well".
It is very painful to see his rituals, water bottles, picking underware, etc etc. You can't say he is mentally very strong. Explain me why he does those crazy things if he is mentally so strong.

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:29 PM

That raises the question, will Rafael Nadal be permanently marked by that critical, backhand miss in the Australian Open final a few days ago?
===============

Player as Federer's had 40:15 with TWO match points he couldn't convert.
It is only YOU having regrets

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:30 PM

In the last six majors, Djokovic has won four times—beating Nadal three times and Murray once. He lost to Nadal in the U.S. Open final in 2010, and lost to Federer in that French Open semi last year and has a record of 38-2 in those events. But four of those 38 wins were great escapes: In the 2010 and 2011 U.S. Open semis, in which Federer held two match points in each match but lost, and in the just-completed Australian Open semi and final.

In the semifinal, Murray led on Djokovic's serve, 15-40, at five games all in the fifth set. In the final, Nadal was up a break at 4-2 and up 30-15 when he missed an easy backhand pass. In each of those four matches, Djokovic came back from the brink, and won, each time by a 7-5 score.

How remarkable is it to come back late in the fifth set of a major semifinal or final against a top opponent? So rare that his three chief rivals have done it just twice, combined, in their illustrious careers. Murray has never won a fifth-set Grand Slam match past the round of 16. Nadal faced a break point while trailing Federer at 3-4 in the fifth set of their classic encounter in the 2008 Wimbledon final. And in the next year's Wimbledon final, Federer saved two break points well into the overtime stage of the fifth set of his epic match against Andy Roddick, then went on to win the set, 16-14. Djokovic himself had never even played a fifth set in a semifinal or final before starting his string in 2010.

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 06:32 PM

I want to personally thank Nole for upping his level and taking it to Rafa. For the last two years it has only been Roger but he is a puzzle (outside of The French) that Rafa solved in 2008. He suffered 2 heart breaking losses at Wimbledon before he broke through. I felt that 2011 was not only a result of a grueling but spectacular 2010 but a loss of passion. I know he hasn't won the world tour finals, but I don't think he had that on his checklist, bucket list maybe but he has never came out and made it a goal as he had with everything else.

Now he has a clear and present target in Nole. But greater than Nole, I believe the bigger fight was him trying to find his fight again. AO 2012 will be defining not because he let it slip away but because he just got re-aquainted with "the suffering" that defined his game since he first came on the scene. VAMOS!

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:32 PM

To get a sense of how unlikely Djokovic's comebacks have been, we estimated the probability he would win each match at the lowest point in each of the fifth sets by following the assumptions of Jeff Sackmann, the tennis-stats guru, who built a win-probability model on the reasonable basis that the server on hard courts has a 65% chance of winning the point, and 60% on clay. (All the Big Four are better-than-average servers and better-than-average returners, so the averages should roughly apply to them.)

By those assumptions, Djokovic had a 9.7% chance of breaking Nadal when he was down 30-15 in that fateful seventh game of the fifth set Sunday, and a 42.7% chance of winning the set and match if he did win the game. He also had a 5.9% chance of winning the match even if he lost the game. Combine those probabilities and he had a 9.5% chance of winning the match at that point. Using the same logic, he was a little more likely to win at his lowest points in the 2010 U.S. Open semi and this year's Australian Open semi, and a lot less likely to come back at last year's U.S. Open semi

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:33 PM


Even accounting for the fact that Djokovic didn't quite come back from the dead in his two losses at majors in that span, winning four of those six tight matches is truly incredible. From the moment in each match when his chances were lowest, Djokovic had about a one-in-4,500 chance of winning at least four of those six matches. That's overstating the case, because it's based on cherry-picking his low point in each match. But it gives a sense of how much Djokovic has overcome to survive those four tough matches.

Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) 02/01/2012 at 06:35 PM

Rafa's rituals have always amused me and many other sport stars have them.

Unfortunately, he made too many errors in the match, he's human and don't we all make errors at times.

I felt a pang when he finally lost but felt much better quickly when I thought about the match afterwards as I think he is getting much closer to beating Nole. It is just a matter of time.

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:41 PM

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 06:25 PM

Pete

I was there 'live' at that match

Rafa's serve also let him down apart from that b/hand
-----------------

Numbers do not lie, It's not true that anything let Rafa down, specialty serv and BH.

Posted by Ruby 02/01/2012 at 06:41 PM

I think ultimately that missed backhand will haunt Rafa fans more than Rafa himself. In the moment, it felt like a turning point, like the match was about to turn in Rafa's favor. Can anyone say it would have turned out that way? Surely not, but we all have seen how powerful a thing momentum alone can be. There were plenty of other mistakes and missed opportunities throughout the six hours, naturally -- but that was the one that had the FEEL of the great ship momentum turning about.

Posted by Julian 02/01/2012 at 06:46 PM

I agree Pete, I don't think it will weigh on Rafa the same way Roddick's miss at Wimbledon has become a deadweight on his career. Rafa's just too strong mentally to let something like that get to him. Of course the miss was significant at the time and he would have been in a commanding position had he closed the game out, but the positive Rafa took was that he was in a position against Djokovic that he's not been in for over a year; being close to actually closing a match out. I can't imagine there won't be more chances for him to eventually beat Djokovic, whether at RG or Wimbledon, and he knows now what he has to do.

Posted by legal eagle 02/01/2012 at 06:50 PM

I am not a fan of Nadal. But I dont think it will be career-changing thing for Nadal. As compared to those two guys mentioned, Nadal has been winning slams and tournaments. And as compared to those guys, Nadal has a more stable and mature mind and physicality as a player. He wouldn't have won 10 Slams if he doesn't have those qualities.

http://myballsmyballs.blogspot.com/2012/01/djokovic-wins-his-fifth-grand-slam.html

Posted by Mrs Tennis 02/01/2012 at 06:52 PM

I watched this final to see where Rafa is with Novak's game. He's in a good place. What I saw was first of all, the "colm." I saw the determination and focus that has seen Rafa through to many titles - some in some very tight places. I saw a confident Rafa. He did get nervous on some points that could have won him the title. But he's surrounded by a great team and they are working on that. I am most impressed by the "uncles" being there. Imagine having all of that very masculine support in your corner!!!
I also read his presser to see where his attitude is. He's in a very good place. He declared that Novak is not in his head and that there is no longer anything mental going on. That's a good thing.
Finally, I'm going to say something bold and that is that Novak did not win this match - as much as Rafa lost it. You know what I mean???
I'm excited about what this season will bring Rafa.
Happy watching!

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 06:52 PM

Rubbish:):):)
Evry time Nadal see Novak across the net he is simply scared and unsure.

qt54ruyazet]0mjpn7y6t7

Posted by kris kini 02/01/2012 at 06:56 PM

Joker will be playing French open for a carrear Grand slam as well as for a
Grand slam award to win 4 majors in a row. I hope Fed will not beat him
and then lose to Nadal. Even though I am Fed fan I donot want him to beat Joker and then lose to Nadal. Let Joker get a GS

Posted by Bone 02/01/2012 at 07:00 PM

Nah, Humble Bull won't be haunted by that miss, he's a grinder. The only thing ever getting into his head is losing on clay. The Le Söd loss had more mental effect than physical, while he looked even worse following the 0-4 set defeat at Madrid/Rome, luckily he had the mental midget in the Paris final.

Djokovic will once again dominate Rafa on clay, and if opportunity comes, he'll crush him at the Garros. And THEN he'll have nightmares.

Posted by Yolita 02/01/2012 at 07:01 PM

"Is something unbelievable how he returns, no? His return probably is one of the best of the history. That's my opinion, no? I never played against a player who's able to return like this. Almost every time."

A Nadal fan might be moved to wince by the obvious note of awe in that remark...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think so. A Nadal fan might be proud to notice Rafa's lucidity even at such a difficult moment. You can't change what you don't acknowledge. With that comment, Rafa showed that he's very much aware what he's up against. He's not in denial thinking that Novak got lucky... So he'll prepare to play against the best returner in history and he'll have a better chance next time. He almost did it this time... Who knows what'll happen next time they meet.

Posted by thebigapple 02/01/2012 at 07:03 PM

Nadal will be fine...even this Fed fan knows that. (His leg will be fine. His will be fine.)

On the other hand, the chair that attacked him is likely to be firewood by now.

Posted by Underspin 02/01/2012 at 07:06 PM

Don't think it will haunt Rafa, he is still a great champ. Amazing that he had a great year last year compared to all other tour players except for djoke. I wouldn't count Rafa out just yet and he seemed like he got a lot more mojo back than last years finals.

Posted by Underspin 02/01/2012 at 07:08 PM

Btw, I think it was wertheim who noted something about Roddick ridiculing djoke's so called injuries and ailments in the past. Clearly Andy loved in the past to show his disdain for djoke, wonder how he feels now! Green with envy?

Posted by Mr. Truth 02/01/2012 at 07:09 PM

Interesting article Pete, but the true(and in many ways, FINAL ) test for Nadal will come in a few months....at Roland Garros.

The 2012 French Open final AKA Nadal's Last Stand, will be a ferocious battle. And if Djokovic wins that...well, Rafa may be mentally 'broken' like a horse....forever

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 07:09 PM

Bone,

I agree with you on your point that Rafa losing on clay is gut busting to him but this year he will not meekly cede ground on clay to Nole. He sent that message loud and clear at the finals. If they battle on clay like they have in the last two slams, someone or both is going home on a stretcher.

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 07:12 PM

Interesting article Pete, but the true(and in many ways, FINAL ) test for Nadal will come in a few months....at Roland Garros
-----

.................fq3525......

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 07:13 PM

Interesting article Pete, but the true(and in many ways, FINAL ) test for Nadal will come in a few months....at Roland Garros


Just there???
Lets spin that till FO 2020

Posted by Tim (warning: pesky CHAIRS cause knee damage!) 02/01/2012 at 07:15 PM

so how many wins will it take for Rafa to 'solve' novak? just one? what about the 7 losses in a row, 3 Slam finals, etc,? i mean, its amazing to me how upbeat the media is about a clearly sliding rafa .. u simply cant erase these results, can you?

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:15 PM

"Ok, lets get over the idea that Rafa is the kind of person who is "haunted" by anything!"

Indeed. :)
He was smiling, genuinely, during his speech, also after the ceremony, and during presser, in the Melbourne airport video messages (Spanish + English), in the plane posing with a fan, at the airport when arriving home. And he had a lot of reasons to be happy and satisfied.
As a fan I'm thrilled to have The Rafa back - missed him last year.
And I'm very, very proud to be a fan.

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 07:17 PM

Nadal's already collected nice silverware set of plates for 6 person. He goes for second set
What can you do? Man has a big family

Posted by Tesla (if they hate him they can drop - for our Nole is the top) 02/01/2012 at 07:17 PM

I am not sure about a single backhand miss but Nadal IS and WILL be haunted by this loss despite of what he says to the press. Also, I was able to observe over last two days that his fans are even more haunted - a typical example is Steve Tignor who on these pages gave Rafa the same mark as the winner of the tournament. That is simply defying any common sense!

Rafa knows deep inside that he will never again have opportunity against Novak who played a 5-hour match just 36 hors ago while Rafa had 48 hour rest.

This was his only chance and he knew it - why else did he go down on his knees in extasy after winning just a set!!! By the way that was the best possible/imaginable tribute to Novak's greatness, something that both Bodo and Tignor failed to note in their reports.

I like Nadal a lot (a bit less after seeing him challenging his own serve, though) and he is a great tennis player and super nice human being. I have no problem with his jumping fist pumps, 'lawnmower' pumps, bottle rituals or butt unwedgings, because bottom line he's and will always be a good guy in my book.

However, the last 7 losses against Nole, especially the last one, have left unrepairable damage in his psyche and he will never beat Novak in a GS match again.

Here is a credit card comercial analogy, but using loss of confidence as the mental currency (mentals) instead of money:

Loosing seven finals in a row from a same guy - 350 mentals
First in history to loose three GS finals in a row - 800 mentals
Challenging your own serve in utter desperation - 2000 mentals
Going down on your knees after winning a set - priceless!

Posted by nettler 02/01/2012 at 07:17 PM

Nadal's already collected nice silverware set of plates for 6 person. He goes for second set
What can you do? Man has a big family

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:19 PM

"I think the W 2007 final still hurts him the most of any defeats and we all know how he turned that around the year after."

Oh absolutely. This wouldn't come close to that.

This one wasn't a particularly bad loss - heck, even last year's Wimbledon was worse, because he really let himself down there, barely showed up to play.

Posted by Ex-Tennis Fan (just horsen's alter ego, because she's living under a rock until Rafa beats Nole) 02/01/2012 at 07:19 PM

Tuulia: totally agreed. The new positive attitude will be waay more impactful on his year than any shot.

Posted by stiv for NOLE 02/01/2012 at 07:24 PM

seems to me that Bodo(and few more) is much more sorry about that missed backhand by Nadal than Nadal himself. Sore looser,,,,it hurts I know,I know but nothing else to do now. Just keep it in yourself and please don't let it get out.
Regards!

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:30 PM

"I don't think so. A Nadal fan might be proud to notice Rafa's lucidity even at such a difficult moment. You can't change what you don't acknowledge. With that comment, Rafa showed that he's very much aware what he's up against. He's not in denial thinking that Novak got lucky... So he'll prepare to play against the best returner in history and he'll have a better chance next time. He almost did it this time... Who knows what'll happen next time they meet."

Thanks Yolita. :) And yes, that's how I see it, too.

Posted by Alice B. 02/01/2012 at 07:32 PM

The Gaudio/Coria French Open match was 2004.

Coria had shoulder surgery three months afterwards, the surgery effectively ended his career.

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:34 PM

just horsen is living under a rock? I'm not sure if I should lol or be sad about that.

Posted by Slick 02/01/2012 at 07:36 PM

Nadal was obviously injured and had no business being in the tournament much less ahead in the 5th set in the final against Novak. Rafa, truly a performance for the ages, we thank you for your guts and spirit!

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 07:41 PM

Why is there such a need for SOME Nole fans to keep asserting that Rafa will never beat Nole again? I mean the man has won the last 7, do you think that has gone unnoticed? I usually ignore this noise but really, who exactly are you trying to convince?

What it sounds like to me is a lot of insecurity in the fact that Rafa is on his heels and some are a little, shall I say, weary?

And Tim...

I'll play your game... "How many time do Rafa has to play Nole"...As many as it takes while he is still willing to pick up a racket and play. What always seems amazes me about your schtick is the fact that Rafa is a great tennis player and that is what feeds your Rafa Fetish. If he wasn't, all your nonsense yammering would be irrelevant, no? For this alone you should kiss the hand that Rafa he uses to pick his shorts. He actually gives a reason to be, snarky but lovable Tim on TW.

Posted by Master Ace 02/01/2012 at 07:41 PM

ATP Thursday Order of Play

Zagreb at 5:30 AM: Baghdatis vs Kubot and Youzhny vs Zemlja scheduled
Montpellier at 8 AM: Mahut vs Mayer
Zagreb at 8 AM: Lacko vs Bogomolov Jr
Montpellier at 10 AM: Berdych vs Serra
Zagreb at 11:45 AM: Garcia-Lopez vs Dodig followed by Sela vs Karlovic
Vina del Mar at Noon: Delbonis vs Bellucci and Berlocq vs Junqueira scheduled
Montpellier at 1 PM: Russell vs Monfils followed by Nieminen vs Mathieu
Vina del Mar at 3:45 PM: Souza vs Gonzalez
Vina del Mar at 6:45 PM: Zeballos vs Chela

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 07:44 PM

Tim,it's amazing how tireless you are in pointing out how Rafa and his fans ought to feel,what happen to leaving individuals alone with what and how they want to feel about given situations?
Don't you realise by now that repeating it a zillion times will not make the world think like you want them to think about Rafael?give it a rest already...

Posted by Perspective 02/01/2012 at 07:45 PM

It is also true that Novak could have won in 4 sets - he had missed opportunities when he was leading in the breaker and up love-40 on Nadal's serve - Rafa himself said that to put things in the right perspective.

Posted by Krakondack 02/01/2012 at 07:46 PM

The difference is far bigger than any similarity. Coria had never won a slam. Roddick won only one, and had to listen to a lot of carping over his failure to win a second. Those were HUGE let-downs for those exact reasons. Nadal has won 10, including the AO. He has nothing huge left to prove, so give it a rest.

Posted by Tim (warning: pesky CHAIRS cause knee damage!) 02/01/2012 at 07:46 PM

Youre right slick, i really wish Nadal had dropped out of the tournament, too, chairs cause serious knee damage and fatalities to moonpies and leads in blown leads in 5th sets...the fact that he could run alley to alley for 6 hours is a clear sign of injury, how obvious does it have to be? you might wanna join my Facebook page, Ban the Moonpie, intended to save Rafa from himself, save his knees, and take up full-time fishing!

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 07:46 PM

netter

Pardon Me

I was talking about the 5th set when Rafa was trying to consolidate the break he had

May I suggest if you have a tape of the match like I do

Rafa's serve let him down and his b/hand as well to consoldiate the break

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 07:49 PM

Tim

May I suggest you Stop Watching Rafa's Matches from now on

It clearly pains you to do soo

Also its getting Painful you always seem to say the Same Old Things regarding Rafa

Posted by Carter 02/01/2012 at 07:49 PM

The fact is, Rafa was very close to losing in four sets, just like his two previous slam finals against Djoko.

That said, we do know that Rafa was #2 to Fed for, like, 5 years, but kept tweaking and tuning his game until he snatched Wimbledon, AO, and #1 spot from Fed. He can do it -- well, he did it before, now, can he do it again?

And that is the big question. 2011/2012 Rafa looks a bit deflated. He started talking about a lack of motivation, about a season being too long, about golf career, etc. Which makes me think that, no, he won't pull it again because his motivation is not 110% as before, it looks more like 85% these days. I expect Djoko to snatch the French Open this year.

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 07:50 PM

And all this time you employ to analyse Nadal's decline and what not,why don't you channel it to the inimitable MASTER's quest for the 17th slam,he'll be very grateful to you for he's got one equation to solve,talk about diverting attention o your very own worries!

Posted by izidane- Ajmo! Nole No.5 02/01/2012 at 07:52 PM

'In other words, Nadal probably won't be haunted by that backhand miss. He feels the game was about Djokovic's returning skill. The next time they meet, Nadal will be less likely to fret about missing a similar shot or opportunity than about what Djokovic's return skills demand of his serve game.'

Agreed. The greatest test to mind Rafa's set will be the clay swing since he feels he has somewhat narrowed the gap on hard court. Should make for an interesting year between these two.

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:52 PM

"Rafa himself said that to put things in the right perspective."

Rafa is indeed good with perspective.

(The same cannot be said about some Novak fans aound here. Success - even if not their own - does go to some people's head that way...)

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 07:53 PM

May I also add in that game Rafa was trying to consoldiate he didnt get a first serve in from memory.Hmmm.

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 07:53 PM

izidane did you see the news about Vee on the first page?

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 07:56 PM

"The difference is far bigger than any similarity. Coria had never won a slam. Roddick won only one, and had to listen to a lot of carping over his failure to win a second. Those were HUGE let-downs for those exact reasons. Nadal has won 10, including the AO. He has nothing huge left to prove, so give it a rest."

Indeed.

Posted by MNTennisFan 02/01/2012 at 07:56 PM

Nadal is such a champion that one point does not change his mind set. If it was like that, he would not have won as many slams and made as many records in his career. Also, this point is not like a tie breaker point or anything.. instead of 30-30 it would have been 40-15. Nadal played bad points afterwards.. What makes you think he wont lose that game even with 40-15? Like Nadal said, the point to focus is -- He was so close to beating Novak.

Now, the question will be: Will he use it as a positive energy, and turn it around? or will it be like Roddick, coming so close to beating Fed, but going back to getting beaten. I am willing to bet, he will turn it around, given how tough he mentally is.

But, to me in the Current scenario, it looks like Novak, with the current game if he stays fresh, has 10 out of 10 chances of beating Rafa, 9 out of 10 chances of beating Federer and Murray.

It remains be seen whether Novak can emulate The Master (Federer) in not just winning titles, no. 1 but also staying hungry.. Rafa needs to come back big with big serves..

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 07:57 PM

I am yet to see Rafa at Roland Garos be defeated in 5 sets

He owns that court.

Being there live in 2005 which was a defining point in Rafa's career when he won his 1st GS title

Then again I had the pleasure of seeing him live in the final at RG 2011 where again he showed why he is the Greatest Clay Player and in winning his 6th title and equalling Borgs record.Borg was my idol.I never thought I would see the day that another player would take that title away from him

Posted by Diane 02/01/2012 at 07:57 PM

Forget about Rafa

I am now watching the womens final on TC for the 1st time and boy is this a killer for a Maria fan I know that there are not too many of us here..
Hard to watch but I must say that Victoria has put her time in and was due.
I am thrilled to have a new #1 with a slam, so deserving. As a Maria fan, I wish she could have done it but I am happy for Vika, she desered the win.

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 08:00 PM

"2011/2012 Rafa looks a bit deflated."

2011 yes.
2012 no.

He sounds and seems *very* motivated and happy playing tennis.

I don't know where you got the golf career thing, lol - it's just a hobby for him.

Posted by Nam1 02/01/2012 at 08:01 PM

X tennis fan is just horsen?


And why are you under a rock?

Come out and play!

Posted by Slice-n-Dice 02/01/2012 at 08:02 PM

I agree, Pete, that Rafa will not let that missed opportunity haunt him. It's surely behind him now, and probably was within a point or two of making that error. As you say, great players have short memories, and Rafa is likely no different.

That said, that was a huge miss, and it was likely the game-changer for both men. At that juncture in the match, Rafa was, as the quote you shared above reveals, feeling very strong, hitting his forehands and serves huge. Djokovic,in comparison, was not looking well at all. He was sluggish, even favoring his right leg or hip, and looked down and out -- beaten. He was lifting his arms in despair and frustration, and looking at his box with a smile that said, "What can I do against that?!"

So, there are two realities here as I see it. The first is that Rafa's mentality was unaffected by that miss over the remainder of the match. The second is that it did make a difference; it was a game-changer and momentum-swinger; and it did appear to instill a bit of hope into Novak. And as we've seen, and Rafa's old rival Roger knows all too well... give Novak a little hope and he'll turn it into gold-plated trophies.

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 08:02 PM

And one thing is sure,the more NOLE beats Nadal,the sweeter the one final time Nadal beats him back,and I will wait for that one for as long as I'm given the chance to!

Posted by Ex-Tennis Fan (just horsen's alter ego, because she's living under a rock until Rafa beats Nole) 02/01/2012 at 08:03 PM

"I am yet to see Rafa at Roland Garos be defeated in 5 sets

He owns that court."

well, everyone said that Rafa owns 5 set Slam Finals too...and look what happened with that.

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 08:03 PM

Tuulia,

"(The same cannot be said about some Novak fans around here. Success - even if not their own - does go to some people's head that way...)"

Those Nole fans have a lot to learn about life, where reality dictates there are no absolutes. I can deal with the level headed Nole fans who don't "go shark jumping" because they have the maturity to understand this fact. But to the ones who own the ability to foresee the future, I have only one request, could they pass along some winning lotto number while they're at it?

Tim, I have no excuse for...

Posted by izidane- Ajmo! Nole No.5 02/01/2012 at 08:03 PM

Hi Aube.
I did, can't wait for the Fed cup to kick off.
Sorry, I crashed on Sunday while we were still talking...that's what happens when you spend more than 24hrs awake.

Btw, not surprised by the CWoz loses a coach news.

Posted by Tesla (if they hate him they can drop - for our Nole is the top) 02/01/2012 at 08:03 PM

Aussiemarg,

What is your take on Nadal challenging his own serve against Novak?

I have posed this question to another declared Nadal fan who I respect(Fernando) and he answered it.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:04 PM

Slice

Rafa did have BP when Nole was serving for the match

Being there live I didnt give up hope

Luck also favours the Brave in situations.

Posted by Ex-Tennis Fan (just horsen's alter ego, because she's living under a rock until Rafa beats Nole) 02/01/2012 at 08:05 PM

"Tim, I have no excuse for..."

Tim is Tim. Same as BP is BP. no-one makes excuses for them, and no-one changes them, but everyone misses them when they're gone.

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 08:05 PM

it's ok izidane,believe me I have overdosed on sleep so far to be able to recover,I think it was Tuesday that I slept from 8 AM to 1PM,oh! what time zone differences do to us tennis buddies!lol!

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:07 PM

I am talking about Clay

Harcourts is another thing.

Rafa probably was biding for some time:)

Posted by Carter 02/01/2012 at 08:08 PM

Rafa seemed not-too-down after his loss to Djoko because -- he expected to lose. By the time someone beats you 6 times in a row, you've probably realized that the other guy is just better. It's seven in a row now, including clay, grass and hardcourt. If you look at the Trivalry, that has not happened before, not even close. It is embarassing and Rafa knows it. Do you think that, after this finals, he popped the champaigne and celebrated his "improvement" against the evil Djoko? Like, seriously. More likely, he cried himself to sleep.

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 08:08 PM

Ex-Tennis Fan,

Does Tim own snark? I don't think so. If you have ever read any post I've addressed to him, I get him totally. But thanks anyway...

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:09 PM

Anyway who is this imposter 'ex tennis fan'

Come out as I am in no mood for games:)

Posted by luckybasrad 02/01/2012 at 08:12 PM

?
what's going on??
I can post this short thing but not longer one? It's only three parahraphs long?? Is there any limitations?

I think I am going to cut it in 5 pieces, and post it 5 times to get one whole thing.

Posted by Nam1 02/01/2012 at 08:12 PM

Eri

Let it go....it's usual to have some super aggressive Nole fans assert themselves for a few days , dissing whoever he defeated,( oh wait, that would be Rafa) , after a slam, at least the last 3 or 4 that Novak has won. I

BTW, I do not include fans like Zeljana, Yolita and some others in this group.

Tim can and should be ignored......he obviously was not taught what we all were taught in childhood...screaming the same thing over and over and over again , makes people tune you out.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:12 PM

Any professional tennis player has to Move on from any defeat if not that are doomed.Full stop.

Rafa will take the positives from that match and move on

I also know he understands his b/hand and serve need to improve

I mean his b/hand in the final of AO 2009 was just Lethal and I have always been of the opinion especailly on a hard court Rafa needs his b/hand clicking

Posted by Tuulia 02/01/2012 at 08:12 PM

"--- everyone misses them when they're gone."

I agreed with you until you finished with this. :)

(I do miss BP, too.)

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 08:13 PM

I beg to differ Carter Rafa will nevergo in court expecting to loose,plus if he was why would he fight back from love-forty in the fourth set and kill himself physically if he so knew he was going to loose?

Champions fight till the end,they don't anticipate loosing!

Posted by Nam1 02/01/2012 at 08:13 PM

"Tim is Tim. Same as BP is BP. no-one makes excuses for them, and no-one changes them, but everyone misses them when they're gone."

Ummm, no.

Posted by Ex-Tennis Fan (just horsen's alter ego, because she's living under a rock until Rafa beats Nole) 02/01/2012 at 08:17 PM

Eri: its all cool. and believe me, i'm fully aware of the fact that Tim does not own snark. i was just making a general statement in response to yours. :)

AM: sorry, but i can't comply with that demand. you know my condition for "coming out". just horsen is out of commission until then. :)

Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) 02/01/2012 at 08:18 PM

If Tim ever falls off a chair we will never hear about it.

But I would laugh myself silly if we did.

Posted by luckybasrad 02/01/2012 at 08:19 PM

Get a life, Bodo!
Loser...writes about losers. How about one article about the winner of the 2012 AO?? Noo...you can't do it...beacuse Djoko Djokovic is not a loser. Go and cry with Nadal together. You desreve each other.

Posted by luckybasrad 02/01/2012 at 08:20 PM

From your text:

"The next time they meet, Nadal will be less likely to fret about missing a similar shot or opportunity than about what Djokovic's return skills demand of his serve game."
--------

The next time they met, Djokovic won't let Nadal come even that close. Federer must be your close realtive. You, as himself, try to analyse 6 hour GS match through ONE SINGLE SHOT??????? ohh...my! I am crying and don't know how to write it here, so other people can hear me!!

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 08:21 PM

Nam1,

Let go of what? If I have an opinion about what is being said, I will express it. Isn't that allowed here, or did I miss something?

Posted by izidane- Ajmo! Nole No.5 02/01/2012 at 08:22 PM

As brutal as the last two weeks were I am, for the first time ever looking forward to the clay season and FO. It would be nice for Nole to defend all his IW and Miami points, but that's a big ask. The target is squarely on his back now for every single match and he will have to respond every single time. The clay swing will get tricky with his home tourney sandwiched in between. I'd also like to see how Rafa's improvements measure up at IW and Miami.

Posted by Fedex Fan 02/01/2012 at 08:25 PM

We really are trying to find ways to fill column inches aren't we!!

I also find the mention of this missed pass mystifying since so much has been made of it. I do not see a mention of the fact that had Djok not made two really lousy forehand errors on two of the last three tie break points in the 4th set we would have never been in the 5th to have had this discussion!!

Posted by bdscks 02/01/2012 at 08:27 PM

Novak has also something to regret for, namely he would've been sorry he had not finished the match in 4 sets. Shoulda, coulda, woulda, Nole is the King of Australia.

Posted by Carter 02/01/2012 at 08:31 PM

Aube, I miss the "old" Rafa. You know that curve-around down-the-line forehand? He used to make it, like, 75% of the time, or maybe more. These days, it is more like 30%, including the missed one at 30:15 at 4:2 in the 5th against Djoko. That shot requires enormous strength, and Rafa seems to just not have it anymore.

You know what year Rafa snagged the most titles? Eleven titles, back in 2005, including a slam and four masters. 2011? Three titles, including a slam and one master.

Posted by Nam1 02/01/2012 at 08:32 PM

Eri

What I meant by "Let it go" was just ignore it.

Posted by Andrew Burton 02/01/2012 at 08:35 PM

As I recall the point, Nadal played a short ball, Djokovic approached to Nadal's FH, Nadal's attempted FH pass was haigh, Djokovic's attempted drop FH volley arced high, Nadal had a ton of time to make the pass into the open court, and...

Against Federer, I think Nadal hits a winner on the first FH pass. If he hits the same shot, I think Federer hits a better volley, and Nadal makes a tougher BH pass anyway.

In other words, this was one of those occasions when the mental game stood out in high relief - Nadal's two attempts to pass Djokovic were both weaker than he'd expect against other opponents.

I do expect Nadal not to dwell on a single shot. But Djokovic was there to be taken, after a first set where he played like a man who'd put in a lot of running two nights before, and in a fifth set where momentum had swung, seemingly decisively, to his opponent.

One thing Nadal has always been ruthless about is stopping an opponent seizing momentum - see, for example, USO F 2010. On Sunday, he couldn't do this. He let Djokovic back into the match in set two (as Federer did three nights before), and he couldn't close from a winning position. A single shot isn't the issue. Being able to execute on the big points - Nadal's calling card - is.

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:38 PM

Andrew

Thanks

I have to agree with you on that point...Rafa should have played it to the open court he was his for the taking...I just closed my eyes after that point.Enough said.

Posted by Tim (warning: pesky CHAIRS cause knee damage!) 02/01/2012 at 08:39 PM

you guys are a hoot! trust me, If I had anything to say about Fred federer at this point, I would ... he's a bit MIA now, another lousy performance vs. Rafa, this goes way back to 2006, missd break points by the buckets, what's there to say?

now Rafa and his fans offer such riches I cant resist... i really wish some of you would have more fun, and to be clear, tons of other posters say the EXACT same thing about Rafa... i think its hysterical you blame me for these opinions, they're all over TW from posters NOT named Tim!

the good news is, Rafa will be hibernating the month of February, presumably avoiding all chairs, and Fred Fed is playing Davis Cup...something to talk about not moonpie related, gifts from above!

Posted by Eri 02/01/2012 at 08:39 PM

Nam1,

Gotcha ;). I usually do but today I'm in the mood...lol.

Posted by Aube,collation de patisseries et de fruits!merci Grand-mere! 02/01/2012 at 08:41 PM

Don't worry Carter,that Nadal is still on! what is undeniable is NOLE is on big time,what part of he's on an incredible run don't people understand?

who knows we're talking right now may be NOLE will win 20 grand slams in his career,what is so hard to believe?

Sampras won 15,Federer won 16 may be NOLE 20,what's not to love?

Posted by Aussiemarg,Madame President,With A New Head In 2012! 02/01/2012 at 08:42 PM

Praise The Lord Tim!!!!

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