Concrete Elbow by Steve Tignor - A Modest but Tangible Confidence
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A Modest but Tangible Confidence 02/14/2011 - 3:37 PM

Mr It was a weekend for baby-faced killers. It was a weekend for small-tournament opportunities taken. It may have been a weekend for the future.

Let’s start with the big news, which came on the men’s side. There’s not much not to like about Milos Raonic, is there? He plays a dynamic, first-strike brand of tennis. He plays with intelligence and seems to learn from his mistakes over the course of a match. He does it with a controlled sense of excitement and passion that’s efficient but never distanced or dull to watch; like a lot of great players, Raonic, a Canadian via Montenegro, is a former tantrum-thrower who has had to learn to use that energy for good. On top of that, he's well-spoken. The engineers’ son was just as good in his inaugural trophy-ceremony as he had been in his inaugural final. Raonic is a friendly kid who isn’t soft; there’s a modest but tangible confidence to him.

Two guys who most famously fit the reformed-madman description are Bjorn Borg and Roger Federer. That’s not bad company, and Raonic has taken the tour by storm in the last month. These are the exciting moments: Just when you’re wondering if there will ever be another Top 5 prospect, a possible new future comes into view. To me, at least, Raonic came from close to nowhere. I was at the doubles match in Toronto last summer when he and a partner beat Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic (who may or may not have tanked). The Raonic serve stuck out, but there wasn’t a sense that he was someone you absolutely had to look out for. At the Australian Open last month, I sat and watched as he nearly went out in the final round of qualifying to a small-hitting Czech. I walked away thinking it would be a while before I saw Raonic again, and that prospects are a dime a dozen. An hour later, I was surprised to look up at the scoreboard in the press room to see that he had won. Maybe he had more resources, mental and physical, than I'd realized; maybe he was worth more than a dime. Raonic’s life has changed considerably since then.

OK, now seems as good a moment as any for the obligatory perspective paragraph. Raonic won a 250. He was given a free pass to the final when Gael Monfils pulled out. He got a gift in the first-set tiebreaker when his opponent, Fernando Verdasco, missed a very makeable passing shot on the first of four set points, and then out-and-out choked on the last of them. Raonic relied on his serve heavily, and barely had a sniff at a break. He showed some weakness on the down-the-line backhand, which he missed badly on a number of occasions. He can play the net but didn’t do a whole lot of it. And the conditions were tailor-made for him. If we can say one thing about the 6-foot-5 Raonic’s future and his game, it’s that, like most beanpole bomb-droppers, he’s going to be a monster indoors. The SAP Open was even played in a hockey rink, second-home to any Canadian.

So let’s not look ahead; there was plenty to enjoy from him yesterday. Raonic plays at his own pace, without being obnoxious about it, and seems to have developed a set of rituals on his serve that keep him focused—he has a good way about him around the court. Unlike fellow big man Robin Soderling, Raonic’s serve is the picture of smoothness and easy, Sampras-like power. He can hit 145 m.p.h. flat and his kick into the ad court is—there’s no other way to put it—filthy. Better, though, is the way Raonic thinks of points. He walks the fine line that every player is taught to walk: Look to create, but don’t go for it all in one shot. He can open up a point with his forehand from way back in the court, and knock it for a winner inside-out, but you don’t get the feeling he’s just belting the ball around; his spots are well-chosen. Raonic also played it smart by bouncing his forehand high to Verdasco’s backhand, a shot the Spaniard struggles with. Afterward, even Verdasco admitted there wasn’t a lot he could do most of the time.

Pk The highlight came, as it should, when the match was on the line. In the second-set tiebreaker, Verdasco wore down Raonic on one point by working his forehand to the Canadian’s backhand. It was a Nadal-Federer type of rally that the Spaniard eventually won with a forehand winner. Later in the breaker, Verdasco tried to set up the same situation, but this time Raonic, recognizing the futility of it for him, answered by knocking a backhand flat that let him turn the tables. A well-timed risk, a big-time game, a modest but tangible confidence. The future could be a lot worse than Milos Raonic.

***

I would like to say all of the same things about Petra Kvitova. I was on the verge of doing so at one point during the Australian Open, after her impressively clutch win over Sam Stosur. She was even reminding me of Nadal! Which only made her pathetic performance against Vera Zvonareva in the quarters that much more disheartening—it took about 10 minutes for the WTA’s future to go up in smoke.

So we know that the 20-year-old Czech is inconsistent. She was even inconsistent this past week in Paris. Before blowing past new No. 1 Kim Clijsters in straight sets in the final, Kvitova had struggled early in the tournament. She plays a high-risk offensive game, and she has trouble when she’s forced onto the defensive. But how many players do you see out-hit Clijsters, especially on a day when she wasn’t rushing her way to defeat. Clijsters, who has played a ton of tennis the last month, did seem just a little weary trying to chase Kvitova’s ground strokes down, but that only shows how strong those strokes were.

I’m still not sure what to make of Kvitova. She’s good enough to win Grand Slams, and  she has looked very sure of herself recently in closing out big matches—yesterday and against Stosur in Melbourne being the prime examples. She already has two titles in 2011 and is up to No. 14 in the rankings, a spot that's still well below her potential. But there’s that match in Australia against Zvonareva that sticks with me, the listlessness of it. Kvitova seems to me to be a confident competitor with the instincts to win. Does she lack the fierce motivation to win every match that all of the best players have? Is her game too high-risk to be consistent? Is she still forming that game at 20, an age when most great women’s champions have already proven themselves? If there’s a lot to like about Raonic, there’s a lot to watch, and hope for, in Petra Kvitova.


 
52
Comments
 

Posted by Slice-n-Dice 02/14/2011 at 04:00 PM

"Modest but tangible confidence" is right, Steve. I like his attacking style and his composure. Very Sampras-like, indeed. Many attack-style players are high-amperage, wired to the hilt. But Raonic, like Pistol Pete, is calm and calculating... and relentless. I'm liking what I'm seeing here.

Posted by Ozone 02/14/2011 at 04:01 PM

Come on. The Milos kid is really good. I see the return of Sampras in this guy.

A game predicated on constructing a point, with a singular goal of ending that point offensively, instead of rallying to death without any purpose. AKA the purpose built game. And his net game is way too good, almost Samprasesque in volleying skill (Sampras still is the best volleyer of all in the current tour - see the Monfils exo).

He will certainly learn and improve many things.

You didnt have to overhype him, but could have been more charitable than the "future could be lot worse than Milos". Thats cold.

I am holding my hopes high for this guy.

Posted by Ozone 02/14/2011 at 04:03 PM

And I cant wait to see how Milos does at SW19 this year.

Posted by Master Ace 02/14/2011 at 04:13 PM

Steve,
Petra game makes her very dangerous at Wimbledon as I do not expect much from her from now until grass season but if she does well at Indian Wells or Miami, watch out.

Posted by wilson75 02/14/2011 at 04:13 PM

Looks like the tennis media have a new bandwagon to jump on: Raonic's. However I have to say that watching Kvitova yesterday, I was also reminded of Nadal.

Posted by Michele 02/14/2011 at 04:15 PM

I'm not making any judgments now because I remember naively dismissing another tall skinny bomber who won a bunch of 250s in 2009.

Posted by wilson75 02/14/2011 at 04:27 PM

Michele: If it's Del Potro you're talking about, that would be in 2008 when he won that bunch of 250s.

Posted by Sea 02/14/2011 at 04:53 PM

I would like Raonic, if he didn't train in Spain.

Posted by Charles 02/14/2011 at 04:54 PM

Movement is generally underestimated, imo. It is v difficult to succeed at the top without it - Lindsay Davenport is a notable exception. But the quickness of Serena, Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Graf, ASV is more typical of a top player. Even Seles and Sharapova (who are moderate movers in my book) were most successful when they were young and at their quickest.

I think there are 4 main considerations to assess the potency of a player's game (and their future potential!):
1. movement
2. ability to hit winners
3. avoidance of error
4. mental toughness.
Put these all together and you have a champion of Serena-like or Graf-like proportion.
Kim Clijsters, for instance, is pretty strong overall, but just below the top in avoidance of error and, occasionally, mental toughness. But she's good enough to be a top player and win slams, especially when the competition isn't dominated by someone excelling at all 4 categories.

In assessing the Wozniacki/Azarenka/Kvitova/ARadwanska/Wickmayer generation it seems to me that Wozniacki scores the highest in a combination of the 4 categories. She's a good mover, avoids error, and is mentally strong. She's not as good at hitting winners and that is making picking up that first slam so tough - with Serena and Kim questionable in the long term, Wozniacki should rise to a slam title unless someone else comes along excelling at these 4 aspects of the game. Is there anyone on the horizon who will do this?

Azarenka is fantastic at hitting winners. She's an acceptable mover, but can be error-prone and suffer mental lapses - she might be mentally tough on one day and not the next. It's going to be tough for her to rise much higher than where she is now, I think. She might be able to concentrate her way through a slam at some point if she can cut down on errors inspite of the burden of her movement.

Kvitova is kind of in the Lindsay Davenport mold. Given her youth she's probably moving as well as she ever will. She hits winners well and can be mentally tough. If she can avoid error she has a real shot at a short stint at the top or (more likely) a Major title. The difficulty for her will be movement. Like Davenport, she can win a slam title if she can blast winners, avoid error, and move as well as she can - but I don't see her becoming a long-term #1. She's not complete enough in all 4 aspects.

ARadwanska is a decent mover, mentally tough, and avoids error but will always have trouble hitting winners. Because she has less power (winners) than Wozniacki she will always be in her shadow.

Wickmayer struggles on a number of fronts - not a great mover, too many errors, and only sporadically mentally tough.

Nor does the future look great for Maria Sharapova. She's never been a great mover but has overcome it in the past by blasting truck loads of winners and incredible mental toughness. However, her 2.0 version continues to fail because of the enormous number of errors she hits. With more than one weakness (errors and movement) I do not foresee a change in her fortunes unless she can get the errors under control.

Bottom line is that of the young generation, Wozniacki seems to have the greatest amount of the 4 fundamentals in place. But she will continue to be just below the best until she can hit more winners, or the best retire...

Just mho...

Posted by pov 02/14/2011 at 04:55 PM

"20, an age when most great women’s champions have already proven themselves"

That seems to be a sentiment that no longer holds much water. It is clear that WTA players are developing later. The strange thing is that you have written articles in which you share your thoughts on what has brought about that change. Yet . . . ?

Posted by tina (forever proud to be in the "Đ-block") 02/14/2011 at 04:59 PM

I like this kid a lot - but he could turn out to be "this year's Marin Cilic" - another guy praised for his composure, and once-stinging shots that have seemingly lost their sting. Or became better-anticipated by opponents. So we'll see what happens over the next few months as players get more exposure to him.

Posted by noleisthebest 02/14/2011 at 05:17 PM

I still haven't seen Raonic play, but my two questions after reading (Playing big ) Pete's article and before reading yours were going to be: Aaaaaah, but does he have soft hands and how much he has between the ears and was relieved to find the answer in the first or second paragraph.

I really did want to watch that final but it was too late ....no, I wasn't going to get up and listen to Verdasco at 4 AM!

Of all the "new" faces from AO, I thought Tomic has most to offer, mainly because he is a creator and not a destroyer.

Posted by noleisthebest 02/14/2011 at 05:20 PM

Charles,

you have forgotten the main ingredients in tennis: heart & IQ.

Posted by BrooklynNY 02/14/2011 at 05:28 PM

Roanic is the return of Sampras. Finally someone willing to play efficient, attacking, no nonsense tennis that doesn't have to "look beautiful". Its downright devastating.

You know Verdasco was going to lose when it got to 4-4 in the first set and he still hasn't gotten a sniff on Raonic Service. He's looking to the sky, gettting frustrating, waving his arms around. Everything that embodies the modern tennis player.

Raonic is a throwback. Best thing is, you would think he would Idolize Federer, and not Sampras, given hes 20 and how his most influential formative years were during Federer's prime.

Milos is a throwback to attacking big boy tennis, not this Sam Querrey, big boy, small heart tennis.

Posted by Holds2Love 02/14/2011 at 05:51 PM

Master Ace, may I ask why you "do not expect much from her from now until grass season?" Do you think her game is less suited to outdoor HC and clay? Or is there some other reason?

thank you.

Posted by Mr. Stats 02/14/2011 at 06:28 PM

That bandwagon about Raonic is quite silly, and once again nobody's really looked at his draw to get to the final compared to Verdasco who had to beat Karlovic in the 2nd round and then DelPotro just the evening before:

1st round: 30 year old Malisse
2nd round: 31 year old Blake
QF: 20 year old Berankis (15-11 career record)
SF: walkover and a loss to Karlovic in the exhibition game.

Sorry folks, but I fail to see how this is supposed to be the 2nd coming of Sampras, lol

Posted by Philip 02/14/2011 at 06:31 PM

I think the first set tiebreaker was more than about Verdasco choking it away. You could see Raonic had decided it was time to stop making errors and focus on constructing the points. He has the resolve of a champion in the making, but there is a lot to work on and there is a lot to nurture that is already there between the ears and in the heart of Raonic.

Posted by mateo 02/14/2011 at 07:01 PM

What speed Sampras used to serve, cause 149 is pretty impressive for a teenster. Maybe someone knows.. Great future I would guess, if top 10 is good enough for you.! Seen 2-3 matchs and am impressed so far. Top dogs have yet more years to wear down....

Posted by 5.0 College Player 02/14/2011 at 07:05 PM

Mr. Stats, thats not an easy draw. Mallisse is a tough first round, I watched Blake play that match with Raonic and he didn't look terrible, the kid just took it to him. Berankis is a big win as well. He beat whoever was put in front of him and it was not a "cake draw", so to speak.

This kid doesn't look like Sampras to me, he likes his backhand and baseline game too much. S and V is a bad move these days and I like that he plays an all-court attacking game with power and timing to spare. Oh, and 149 mph. 149!!!!!!! I want to watch the top 20 guys contend with him. Isner vs Raonic at Wimbledon would last forever.

Posted by Yolita 02/14/2011 at 07:34 PM

"...Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic (who may or may not have tanked)"

I think the part in brackets was unnecessary, Steve. We follow tennis here, we know there's a limit to the amount of energy the #1 and #2 singles seeds in a Masters 1000 are prepared to spend in a doubles match. ;)

Posted by RoastLamb 02/14/2011 at 08:31 PM

Awesome win for Milos and for Canada. Proud doesn't cover it. Great to see the match live on Canadian tv last night - that never happens outside of the grand slams. I can't wait to see him pulverise the competition on SW19.

Posted by Tomas 02/14/2011 at 08:38 PM

Wow...another bandwagon.

The next Sampras? Putting him in the same sentence as R&R? Please.

He needs improvements in his game (and several intense 3 & 5 setter tests) before any such comparisons or statements are made.

Posted by John 02/14/2011 at 09:20 PM

Go Milos!
You should play for your motherland Serbia with Novak!

Posted by Ruth 02/14/2011 at 09:32 PM

"And I cant wait to see how Milos does at SW19 this year."

And I can't wait to see how he does in Memphis! I hear his R1 match with Verdasco has been pushed to Wednesday night -- probably sold out.

Here's hoping that we see more of the AO and SJ Milos and less of the Chennai and Jo'burg Milos. I'm as excited as many others to witness the birth of a potential new star on the men's side, but I can't help being a little cautious about the level of my excitement.

Posted by David 02/14/2011 at 09:37 PM

And he tamely lost to Greul. And was uneffective against Ferrer.

And suffered a serving-shoulder injury after Tokyo last year.

The second coming of Sampras? Go easy on hype. This kid is not naturally athletic at all, just look at his hunched shoulders and back. Very poor movement. He is too tall to be really top player.

So far, we could compare him with Isner or Cilic, two players he resembles most.

Posted by Northernboy 02/14/2011 at 09:55 PM

Raonic was very effective against Ferrer, putting on an S&V clinic in the first set. His level dropped, and Ferrer played a brilliant tourney until he got into the TBs with Andy Murray.

Kvitova is an unreal talent - her build is a bit too much like Dinara Safina - not a great mover, but MAN can she clobber the ball. I too, like Steve, was sorely disappointed in how she played in the Zvonereva match - if playing well Petra should have taken Vera to the woodshed, as she did to Wozniacki last year at Wimbledon. Esp coming off the heels of brilliant matches against Stosur and an extremely in form Flavia Penetta. But she played a match strewn with errors.

Even last year at Wimbledon in the semis, she was up a break on Serena and only had to serve out the set but she played a horrendously loose, error filled game to lose her grip on the match.

Milos, if he gets his BH to a higher level, will be close to unstoppable.

Posted by Master Ace 02/14/2011 at 10:31 PM

"Master Ace, may I ask why you "do not expect much from her from now until grass season?" Do you think her game is less suited to outdoor HC and clay? Or is there some other reason?"

Holds2Love,
Consistency is the biggest question for Petra and it will be magnified even more as expectations climbs especially with her win against Kim. She may do fine on outdoor HC but her movement, despite being improved, will be exposed on clay and also, will she have patience during long rallies.

Posted by Syd 02/14/2011 at 10:44 PM

Interesting read! Yeah, Milos is a Canadian at this point in time. Ya can't have it both ways, at least the Canadian government would not be too keen on the idea. :) Canada is loaded with relatively recent immigrants, the way the US was around the turn of the last century; (bar Mexico); so I'm sure the Raonic's want to be regarded as Canadians, specially as Pere Raonic is involved in the nuclear industry. :)

Verdasco played some tremendous defense last night v. the bomb serving young Canadian; too bad Dasco didn't go all the way; I think a missed smash late in the first set rattled him, and that was it.

As far as Milos goes, we're gonna see. He has a weakness on the backhand side that guys are going to be looking to exploit, one that Dasco failed to exploit as much as he might/should have.

Posted by PJK 02/14/2011 at 11:06 PM

It baffles me that we're giving Petra a bit of a hard time. She just clocked the best player in the world. It also baffles me that we're assuming that her movement is at its peak. Like it's all downhill after 20. These days 20 is the new 18 on the WTA. Champions are blooming a bit later. Martina Navratilova won her first major at going on 22. She didn't really get it together until 1982. LATE BLOOMER. Kvitova moves a bit better than Davenport and relies less on angles. Lower risk game. Give her 18-24 months and I think she's top 3 material.

Posted by Andrew Miller 02/14/2011 at 11:09 PM

Milos is good - it's ominous to beat a quality player in Verdasco. I think Verdasco gets him next time.

Del Potro is amazing though. Bodo put Del Potro down as a big guy who plays small, but nothing about Del Potro says small game. He plays big.

Posted by ralan 02/14/2011 at 11:24 PM

Milos is good, but I don't think we should anoint him the next coming of Sampras. He has to be a bit more consistent and beat the top players, which can only be seen in time.

I would like to see him do well in the Slams, not before he grinds it out a bit on the tour. I expect a nice run at SW19 and a nice summer hardcourt season in North America leading up to the USO.

Posted by ralan 02/14/2011 at 11:33 PM

I think Petra could win majors, but I question her mental toughness. I am not saying its a weakness, I just don't know her likelihoof to choke in slam SF's and F's. Its funny because I want to compare her with Azarenka, who is also physically talented. But I think Vika is more temperamental.

While we are talking about women in the WTA, I think Woz is tough, she just lacks a defining shot (i.e. serve, forehand) which is fine until she runs into someone who has a defining shot (usually in the SF or F). I think a cool-headed Vika and a mentally steady PK could be Woz's main competition in slams for years to come.

Posted by Abhijith 02/14/2011 at 11:38 PM

Nice write-up.

Posted by ralan 02/14/2011 at 11:53 PM

Andrew Miller - Verdasco is a bit of letdown to me, but it's not entirely his fault. Whenever he plays, commentators praise the fact that he skips Christmas in Spain to be with Gil Reyes and the Adidas team training for two weeks in the deserts of Nevada before the AO. Yet, for the past two years, that training really hasn't translated into much success, at least the success that I think a person would have training with GR. I think the commentators need to just leave his training regime out of FV commentary notes. They set him up to appear super dedicated to tennis and training, but it doesn't translate into substantial wins.

FV needs to become more mentally tough if he is going to win anything. Look no further than the constant talking to himself, yelling at his camp (dad), capped by the ridiculous self-mutilation that he gave his head after a bad point against Raonic in the SJ final.

Posted by John Culhane 02/14/2011 at 11:54 PM

I love this flavor the month stuff. I mean, why not? Kind of a low tide in tennis right now, and these two are supplying good copy.

One question: Are Raonic's parents both engineers? You refer to him as the "engineers' son" (plural possessive). If so, that's a lot of, um, structure for a kid....

Posted by ralan 02/15/2011 at 12:12 AM

For those on the Petra bandwagon, how does her career trajectory compare with a player like Alisa Kleybanova? Who becomes the more successful player? I use Kleybanova as an example because they are similar - 1. Alisa (like Kvitova) is not a great mover and is on the heavier side, 2. her groundstrokes are just as powerful as Kvitova, and 3. like Kvitova, Kleybanova is not currently in the top ten, but has been touted as a "great potential player" and being a "darkhorse" for a while. BTW, those terms have also been used a lot to describe Petra. Thoughts?

Posted by MindyM 02/15/2011 at 02:42 AM

@tina - forever proud to be in the d-block,

I loved your comments about Raonic, reminding everyone about all the excitement and premature predictions for Cilic last year. It's a good reality check!

It's always exciting to see a young player come into his own, however, I have learned to be patient and just sit back and watch. I have seen too many incredibly talented young guys come along, only to burn brightly for a very short time and then fade quickly into obscurity.

I will definitely keep an eye on this kid, but for now it's wait and see. I am not yet ready to crown him the "next" anybody just yet.

Posted by jackson 02/15/2011 at 07:00 AM

@John Culhane "Are his parents both engineers?"

Yes, they both are. His father has a PhD and his mother a Masters. Three of his four grandparents are university professors. Milos comes by his smarts and his intelligence honestly. He finished high school at 16 and he has been taking online university classes while on tour. It was one of his father's stipulations in allowing him to try tennis that until he was ranked 100, he had to continue his education and Milos has said that he definitely wants to get his degree.

There also seems to be a little bit of a misconception about Milos' career...that he all of a sudden just magically appeared at the Australian Open. He actually started seeing some success last year. A year ago at this time he was playing Futures events. He made it through the qualies at the US Open but lost in the first round - says he learned a lot about conditioning from that match and it gave him incentive to work even harder.

After a Davis Cup match he went to Kuala Lumpur and made it through the qualies and through to the quarter finals beating Sergey Stakhovsky along the way before losing to Andreev. Again in Japan he got through the qualies and to the R16 before losing 4 and 4 to Rafa. Although he was ranked in the mid-200's at the time, he was finally having success beating guys in the top 100.

At the Australian Open he beat Phau #85, Llodra #24, and Youzhney #10. By the time he got to Ferrer, it was his seventh match in the tourney so it wasn't really surprising he ran out of steam against someone as ferocious as Daveeed. I think Milos proved he can play and win five setters. In Johannesburg after qualifying he beat the second seed, Lu (#37), before playing a stinker of a game against Greul.

I understand so many of you saying you want to wait and see before jumping on his bandwagon but I just wanted to point out that he's been playing very well for the last six months. Can he keep it up? We'll have to wait and see. Now that his ranking is getting up there, he won't have to wear himself out qualifying and he won't get the top seeds in his first couple of rounds so that should help him continue to get some respectable results. I hope so, as it's a huge treat to have a Canadian to root for and cheer on.

Posted by Sexy commenter 02/15/2011 at 09:57 AM

It’s good to see all the good talk about Milos Raonic. Is he the next Pete Sampras? No, he does not want to be like the anemic champion. He wants to be the Wayne Gretzky of tennis. Canada has never been a nation of any sport other than hockey. Remember Canada is the inventor of basketball? There are two great tennis players in Canada: the traitor not-so-great Greg Rusedski and the not-enough-mojo-to-play-single Daniel Nestor. Greg the traitor later went to play for England because she needs a Grand Slam winner for the Wimbledon crown. For the WTA, there is the female traitor Mary Pierce who went to play under the France’s banner. She did it better than Greg by winning one GS title. So Milos is a Serbian hey? No wonder he plays indoors well. And he finishes high school by the age of 16? Must be Serbian high school! But all the hypes about Milos Raonic are just hype. If he plays with 149 mph serves; he will get shoulder surgery soon like Maria Sharopova. And the Sonic Raonic will no longer click.

Posted by Robert 02/15/2011 at 10:31 AM

"Movement is generally underestimated, imo. It is v difficult to succeed at the top without it - Lindsay Davenport is a notable exception. But the quickness of Serena, Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Graf, ASV is more typical of a top player. Even Seles and Sharapova (who are moderate movers in my book) were most successful when they were young and at their quickest.

I think there are 4 main considerations to assess the potency of a player's game (and their future potential!):
1. movement
2. ability to hit winners
3. avoidance of error
4. mental toughness.
Put these all together and you have a champion of Serena-like or Graf-like proportion.
Kim Clijsters, for instance, is pretty strong overall, but just below the top in avoidance of error and, occasionally, mental toughness. But she's good enough to be a top player and win slams, especially when the competition isn't dominated by someone excelling at all 4 categories.

In assessing the Wozniacki/Azarenka/Kvitova/ARadwanska/Wickmayer generation it seems to me that Wozniacki scores the highest in a combination of the 4 categories. She's a good mover, avoids error, and is mentally strong. She's not as good at hitting winners and that is making picking up that first slam so tough - with Serena and Kim questionable in the long term, Wozniacki should rise to a slam title unless someone else comes along excelling at these 4 aspects of the game. Is there anyone on the horizon who will do this?

Azarenka is fantastic at hitting winners. She's an acceptable mover, but can be error-prone and suffer mental lapses - she might be mentally tough on one day and not the next. It's going to be tough for her to rise much higher than where she is now, I think. She might be able to concentrate her way through a slam at some point if she can cut down on errors inspite of the burden of her movement.

Kvitova is kind of in the Lindsay Davenport mold. Given her youth she's probably moving as well as she ever will. She hits winners well and can be mentally tough. If she can avoid error she has a real shot at a short stint at the top or (more likely) a Major title. The difficulty for her will be movement. Like Davenport, she can win a slam title if she can blast winners, avoid error, and move as well as she can - but I don't see her becoming a long-term #1. She's not complete enough in all 4 aspects.

ARadwanska is a decent mover, mentally tough, and avoids error but will always have trouble hitting winners. Because she has less power (winners) than Wozniacki she will always be in her shadow.

Wickmayer struggles on a number of fronts - not a great mover, too many errors, and only sporadically mentally tough.

Nor does the future look great for Maria Sharapova. She's never been a great mover but has overcome it in the past by blasting truck loads of winners and incredible mental toughness. However, her 2.0 version continues to fail because of the enormous number of errors she hits. With more than one weakness (errors and movement) I do not foresee a change in her fortunes unless she can get the errors under control.

Bottom line is that of the young generation, Wozniacki seems to have the greatest amount of the 4 fundamentals in place. But she will continue to be just below the best until she can hit more winners, or the best retire...

Just mho..."

I absolutely agree. You hit the nail right on the head with your assessment. Glad I'm not the only one who thinks movement is the most vital part of the modern game to succeed in this era.

Posted by BK 02/15/2011 at 10:34 AM

I think the "young Sampras" comparison is not premature anymore. Not many overhyped up and comers win a tour-level tournament, even if it is a 250. (Maybe Nishikori.) We can quibble with Raonic's technique and consistency, but Sampras too had issues with his backhand and was not a wizard on the baseline (although he was underrated at this and had a killer crosscourt forehand). What I see is a perfect physique for today's game (suitably tall a la del Potro and Querrey but less gangly - smoother movement, like Federer or Sampras - and not too tall like Isner or Karlovic); a world-class, world-beating serve; and a really, really good temperament. I think he has more potential than Dolgopolov, Tomic, or Dmitrov. This kid will be top 10 by end of 2011, and if he doesn't have a sophomore slump, will be top 3 and a Grand Slam winner within 2 years. I think we're witnessing a future #1, within 3 years, to replace an aging Federer, an ailing Nadal, and a determined Djokovic who has just enough height and power to dominate in 2011 but won't have enough to sustain #1 by 2014.

Posted by Juan José 02/15/2011 at 10:34 AM


Hey Steve,

Nice take on Raonic. Like you, I feel like this guy came out of nowhere. And I was having the same thought about how there didn't seem to be any Djokovic/Murray/DelPo/Nadal prospects out there. But tennis always delivers, and now we have this kid with the size-too-short Lacoste shirts.

It's a testament to his serve, his composure and his forehand that he managed to win an ATP 250 (beating a top 10 guy in the final) with his mediocre backhand and return game. I was surprised at how little this Sampras disciple used the slice backhand not only to defend, but to give himself more chances to set up his forehand in rallies. I was also surprised to see how few times he ran around his backhand to belt an inside-out forehand. About his return game, I remember thinking during the second set of the final, at 0-15 on Verdasco's serve "OK, Verdasco is going to double-fault at least once here, so Raonic needs to come up with two more points". A few moments later, the score was 40-15 to Verdasco, and it seemed impossible to even think of Raonic winning another point. And this is Verdasco we're talking about, not Karlovic or Roddick.

Back to the backhand: Todd Martin noticed how he just doesn't get down for that shot, especially when it comes low and with pace. And since he doesn't see the point in slicing those back, they end up at the net more often than not. When Raonic played Ferrer at the AO, it seemed like he had a shot at the upset, until Ferrer basically said "that's nice, kid. But if you're going to beat me, you're gonna have to hit a ton of good backhands today". Which Raonic couldn't do, and it was telling how his serve started to falter once the frustration at all those missed backhands started mounting.

Still, I really liked Raonic's attitude, especially during the post-match press conference, where he talked about how much he can still improve. He was coy about his "weaknesses", but I think he's well aware of what he needs to work on to get to the top 10 and win bigger tournaments. Now, however, he has to deal with the biggest variable when determining his success: how he responds to the growing expectations, growing attention, growing sums of money that are coming his way, and the repetitive press conferences. Raonic seems well built to handle this new stage of his career, but we all know that it's no easy task. And far from guaranteed.

Right now, Raonic is like a seven-footer in basketball. Just by his size (serve) alone, he's dangerous, and he has a couple of post-moves (forehand) that make him an offensive threat already. However, his jumpshot is iffy (backhand), and his defense (return game and...defense) is suspect. Still, he seems determined, and the weaknesses are definitely fixable. He's even mentioned how he doesn't mind the hard work. So one day he'll have all those tools, and be a devastating force, if injuries don't plague him, and if distractions don't derail his focus.

I wouldn't bet against him.

Posted by Juan José 02/15/2011 at 10:41 AM


Four more things:

- Raonic's kick serve out wide to the ad court is not just filthy: it's borderline illegal. Abusive, even. I couldn't believe the one he hit to ace Verdasco...on a 2nd serve.

- I really, REALLY like Raonic's second serve. Not as unreadable as his first serve, but he definitely has that Sampras mentality of going for it.

- Todd Martin had a few nice comments about Raonic. One was when Gimmelstob asked him about the similarities between himself and the young kid. Martin said "He does everything I used to do...but better".

- Martin also noticed that the one big aspect of Sampras game that Raonic doesn't have (yet) is that running forehand that Sampras used so well to change the dynamic of a point. Del Potro wasn't able to hit that shot right away (but learned how to do it), and Jacket perfected it with the passing of time. Djokovic is getting better and better at it. Raonic's forehand is sound, so I wouldn't put it past him to acquire that tool.

Posted by joe pah 02/15/2011 at 12:07 PM

Even though Kvitova lost her first round match in Dubai, she has significantly improved her consistency so far this year. She's very entertaining to watch because she appeals to the primal instinct in all tennis player: She attacks and hits the ball hard.

She won't win any major until she changes her game to give her returns more margin for error

Posted by Umer 02/15/2011 at 12:20 PM

This guy looked pretty good. i just read the news at http://www.yocto-tennis-club.com

Posted by skyhok 02/15/2011 at 12:56 PM

See these guys play each other tomorrow in Memphis...........nice draw!

The broads game needs a few more faces..........nice to see this dame win one!

Posted by Nikki 02/15/2011 at 02:06 PM

since everyone is calling him the next Sampras....he will end up being anything but...

Posted by Mr Rick 02/15/2011 at 02:08 PM

Raonic is the only "newcomer" in the past couple of years who has really caught my interest. I think he is the real deal. Oh Canadaaaaa!

Posted by noleisthebest 02/15/2011 at 03:56 PM

Raonic-baby Sampras
Tomic- baby Murray
Dimitrov-baby Federer

I'm hanging out for baby Henin.

Posted by Fedal's Enigmatic Twin 02/15/2011 at 04:12 PM

Raonic is great, Canada embraces you oh great baby faced one!

Posted by Legoboy 02/15/2011 at 04:53 PM

Sexy Commentator He's not Serbian, he's from Montenegro....Previously, these countries were joined, but haven't been for a while now.

As for the traitors....I must agree...I saw some comment about Greg R being the last Canadian to win a title, I'm sorry, but he's British as far as any of us are concerned. They can have that title...we'd much rather have an individual, with a very bright future, who WANTS to play for the country, rather than go where the money is.

I look forward to seeing him unfold!

Posted by tina (forever proud to be in the "Đ-block") 02/16/2011 at 02:20 PM

With regard to my previous Cilic comment, I say that as someone who was "driving the Cilic bus" last year, definitely swayed by hype and creating some of it myself.

That he didn't repeat his SF AO 2010 run didn't really surprise me, but this bus got a flat tire when he failed to three-peat Zagreb. Still, I hope Raonic continues to win matches and handle the pressure as he rises.

Fwiw, Montenegro only split from Serbia 5 years ago, and most Montenegrins are of Serbian origins. Not that it really matters, the guy is clearly Canadian. I realize not everyone is as interested as I am in all matters Ex-Yugo.

Juan José appeared and I missed him :((

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